A holistic approach to computer-aided scenario design targeting sustainable manufacturing

Yusuke Kishita, Yuji Mizuno, Maki Hirosaki, Haruna Wada, Shinichi Fukushige, Yasushi Umeda

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Numerous scenarios have been developed in order to create visions of a sustainable society, such as the IPCC's Scenarios. However, sufficient computational assistance has not been provided for designing scenarios. One critical problem is that it is difficult to understand scenarios rationally since scenarios are written in a text form and their logical structure is unclear. For supporting computer-aided scenario design, this paper presents the concept of Sustainable Society Scenario (3S) Simulator. The key approach is to structure scenarios for computerizing them by representing a scenario structure as a directed graph. Based on this approach, this paper proposes a method for dynamically connecting scenarios with associated simulators for their reuse. A case study illustrates that our method clarifies the logical structure of a scenario, e.g., clarifying rationales for deriving conclusions. Also, the method succeeds in exploring alternative futures by changing assumptions in the scenario.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of APMS 2010 - International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems
Publication statusPublished - 2010
Externally publishedYes
EventInternational Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2010 - Cernobbio, Como, Italy
Duration: 2010 Oct 112010 Oct 13

Publication series

NameProceedings of APMS 2010 - International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems

Conference

ConferenceInternational Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2010
CountryItaly
CityCernobbio, Como
Period10/10/1110/10/13

Keywords

  • Computer-aided scenario design
  • Logical structure
  • Rationale
  • Scenario
  • Sustainable manufacturing

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Strategy and Management

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  • Cite this

    Kishita, Y., Mizuno, Y., Hirosaki, M., Wada, H., Fukushige, S., & Umeda, Y. (2010). A holistic approach to computer-aided scenario design targeting sustainable manufacturing. In Proceedings of APMS 2010 - International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems (Proceedings of APMS 2010 - International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems).