A statistical model for predicting the liquid steel temperature in ladle and tundish by bootstrap filter

Sho Sonoda, Noboru Murata, Hideitsu Hino, Hiroshi Kitada, Manabu Kano

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    13 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    A statistical model for predicting the liquid steel temperature in the ladle and in the tundish is developed. Given a large data set in a steelmaking process, the proposed model predicts the temperature in a seconds with a good accuracy. The data are divided into four phases at the mediation of five temperature measurements: before tapping from the converter (CV), after throwing ferroalloys into the ladle, before and after the Ruhrstahl-Heraeus (RH) processing, and after casting into the tundish in the continuous casting (CC) machine. Based on the general state space modeling, the bootstrap filter predicts the temperature phase by phase. The particle approximation technique enables to compute general-shaped probability distributions. The proposed model gives a prediction not as a point but as a probability distribution, or a predictive distribution. It evaluates both uncertainty of the prediction and ununiformity of the temperature. It is applicable to sensitivity analysis, process scheduling and temperature control.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1086-1091
    Number of pages6
    JournalISIJ International
    Volume52
    Issue number6
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2012

    Fingerprint

    Steel
    Liquids
    Probability distributions
    Ferroalloys
    Temperature
    Steelmaking
    Continuous casting
    Temperature control
    Temperature measurement
    Sensitivity analysis
    Casting
    Scheduling
    Statistical Models
    Processing

    Keywords

    • Bootstrap filter
    • General state space model
    • Liquid steel temperature control
    • Statistical modeling and simulation
    • Steelmaking

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Mechanical Engineering
    • Mechanics of Materials
    • Materials Chemistry
    • Metals and Alloys

    Cite this

    A statistical model for predicting the liquid steel temperature in ladle and tundish by bootstrap filter. / Sonoda, Sho; Murata, Noboru; Hino, Hideitsu; Kitada, Hiroshi; Kano, Manabu.

    In: ISIJ International, Vol. 52, No. 6, 2012, p. 1086-1091.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Sonoda, Sho ; Murata, Noboru ; Hino, Hideitsu ; Kitada, Hiroshi ; Kano, Manabu. / A statistical model for predicting the liquid steel temperature in ladle and tundish by bootstrap filter. In: ISIJ International. 2012 ; Vol. 52, No. 6. pp. 1086-1091.
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