A wind power forecasting method and its confidence interval estimation

Tatsuya Iizaka, Toru Jintsugawa, Hideyuki Kondo, Yosuke Nakanishi, Yoshikazu Fukuyama, Hiroyuki Mori

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This paper describes a wind power forecasting method and its confidence interval estimation. Recently, flat control of wind power generators using various batteries has been required. In flat control, accurate wind power forecasts and their error confidence intervals are needed. In this paper, wind speed forecasts are calculated by regression models using Grid Point Value (GPV) weather forecasts. The forecasts are adjusted by fuzzy inference using the latest errors. The wind power forecasts are translated from the wind speed forecasts using two power curves. The power curves are selected or combined by fuzzy inference depending on the wind direction. The error confidence interval models are generated for each forecasting target time. Each confidence interval is combined by the other fuzzy inference. The proposed methods were applied to actual wind power generators, and it was found that the forecasting errors were smaller than in the conventional methods. Almost all of the forecasts can be within the error confidence intervals estimated by the proposed methods. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)52-60
Number of pages9
JournalElectrical Engineering in Japan (English translation of Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi)
Volume186
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Wind power
Fuzzy inference

Keywords

  • confidence interval
  • forecasting
  • fuzzy inference
  • wind power generation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology

Cite this

A wind power forecasting method and its confidence interval estimation. / Iizaka, Tatsuya; Jintsugawa, Toru; Kondo, Hideyuki; Nakanishi, Yosuke; Fukuyama, Yoshikazu; Mori, Hiroyuki.

In: Electrical Engineering in Japan (English translation of Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi), Vol. 186, No. 2, 2014, p. 52-60.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Iizaka, Tatsuya ; Jintsugawa, Toru ; Kondo, Hideyuki ; Nakanishi, Yosuke ; Fukuyama, Yoshikazu ; Mori, Hiroyuki. / A wind power forecasting method and its confidence interval estimation. In: Electrical Engineering in Japan (English translation of Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi). 2014 ; Vol. 186, No. 2. pp. 52-60.
@article{02978d8cef4747f5bcd28f447ad36d56,
title = "A wind power forecasting method and its confidence interval estimation",
abstract = "This paper describes a wind power forecasting method and its confidence interval estimation. Recently, flat control of wind power generators using various batteries has been required. In flat control, accurate wind power forecasts and their error confidence intervals are needed. In this paper, wind speed forecasts are calculated by regression models using Grid Point Value (GPV) weather forecasts. The forecasts are adjusted by fuzzy inference using the latest errors. The wind power forecasts are translated from the wind speed forecasts using two power curves. The power curves are selected or combined by fuzzy inference depending on the wind direction. The error confidence interval models are generated for each forecasting target time. Each confidence interval is combined by the other fuzzy inference. The proposed methods were applied to actual wind power generators, and it was found that the forecasting errors were smaller than in the conventional methods. Almost all of the forecasts can be within the error confidence intervals estimated by the proposed methods. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed methods.",
keywords = "confidence interval, forecasting, fuzzy inference, wind power generation",
author = "Tatsuya Iizaka and Toru Jintsugawa and Hideyuki Kondo and Yosuke Nakanishi and Yoshikazu Fukuyama and Hiroyuki Mori",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1002/eej.22326",
language = "English",
volume = "186",
pages = "52--60",
journal = "Electrical Engineering in Japan (English translation of Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi)",
issn = "0424-7760",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Inc.",
number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A wind power forecasting method and its confidence interval estimation

AU - Iizaka, Tatsuya

AU - Jintsugawa, Toru

AU - Kondo, Hideyuki

AU - Nakanishi, Yosuke

AU - Fukuyama, Yoshikazu

AU - Mori, Hiroyuki

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - This paper describes a wind power forecasting method and its confidence interval estimation. Recently, flat control of wind power generators using various batteries has been required. In flat control, accurate wind power forecasts and their error confidence intervals are needed. In this paper, wind speed forecasts are calculated by regression models using Grid Point Value (GPV) weather forecasts. The forecasts are adjusted by fuzzy inference using the latest errors. The wind power forecasts are translated from the wind speed forecasts using two power curves. The power curves are selected or combined by fuzzy inference depending on the wind direction. The error confidence interval models are generated for each forecasting target time. Each confidence interval is combined by the other fuzzy inference. The proposed methods were applied to actual wind power generators, and it was found that the forecasting errors were smaller than in the conventional methods. Almost all of the forecasts can be within the error confidence intervals estimated by the proposed methods. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

AB - This paper describes a wind power forecasting method and its confidence interval estimation. Recently, flat control of wind power generators using various batteries has been required. In flat control, accurate wind power forecasts and their error confidence intervals are needed. In this paper, wind speed forecasts are calculated by regression models using Grid Point Value (GPV) weather forecasts. The forecasts are adjusted by fuzzy inference using the latest errors. The wind power forecasts are translated from the wind speed forecasts using two power curves. The power curves are selected or combined by fuzzy inference depending on the wind direction. The error confidence interval models are generated for each forecasting target time. Each confidence interval is combined by the other fuzzy inference. The proposed methods were applied to actual wind power generators, and it was found that the forecasting errors were smaller than in the conventional methods. Almost all of the forecasts can be within the error confidence intervals estimated by the proposed methods. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

KW - confidence interval

KW - forecasting

KW - fuzzy inference

KW - wind power generation

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84886777019&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84886777019&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1002/eej.22326

DO - 10.1002/eej.22326

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84886777019

VL - 186

SP - 52

EP - 60

JO - Electrical Engineering in Japan (English translation of Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi)

JF - Electrical Engineering in Japan (English translation of Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi)

SN - 0424-7760

IS - 2

ER -