A wind power forecasting method with confidence interval

Tatsuya Iizaka, Toru Jintsugawa, Hideyuki Kondo, Yousuke Nakanishi, Yoshikazu Fukuyama, Hiroyuki Mori

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper presents a wind power forecasting method with confidence interval. Wind speed forecasts are calculated by regression models using GPV (Grid Point Vale) weather forecasts. The forecasts are adjusted by fuzzy inference using the latest error. The wind power forecasts are translated from the wind speed forecasts using two power-curves. They are combined by fuzzy inference depending on wind direction. The error confidence interval models are generated for each forecasting target time. Each confidence interval is combined by another fuzzy inference. The proposed method has been applied to actual power generators, and found that forecasting errors are better than the conventional methods. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication54th IEEE International Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems, MWSCAS 2011
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011 Oct 13
Event54th IEEE International Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems, MWSCAS 2011 - Seoul, Korea, Republic of
Duration: 2011 Aug 72011 Aug 10

Publication series

NameMidwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems
ISSN (Print)1548-3746

Other

Other54th IEEE International Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems, MWSCAS 2011
CountryKorea, Republic of
CitySeoul
Period11/8/711/8/10

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Electronic, Optical and Magnetic Materials
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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  • Cite this

    Iizaka, T., Jintsugawa, T., Kondo, H., Nakanishi, Y., Fukuyama, Y., & Mori, H. (2011). A wind power forecasting method with confidence interval. In 54th IEEE International Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems, MWSCAS 2011 [6026398] (Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems). https://doi.org/10.1109/MWSCAS.2011.6026398