TY - GEN
T1 - A wind power forecasting method with confidence interval
AU - Iizaka, Tatsuya
AU - Jintsugawa, Toru
AU - Kondo, Hideyuki
AU - Nakanishi, Yousuke
AU - Fukuyama, Yoshikazu
AU - Mori, Hiroyuki
PY - 2011/10/13
Y1 - 2011/10/13
N2 - This paper presents a wind power forecasting method with confidence interval. Wind speed forecasts are calculated by regression models using GPV (Grid Point Vale) weather forecasts. The forecasts are adjusted by fuzzy inference using the latest error. The wind power forecasts are translated from the wind speed forecasts using two power-curves. They are combined by fuzzy inference depending on wind direction. The error confidence interval models are generated for each forecasting target time. Each confidence interval is combined by another fuzzy inference. The proposed method has been applied to actual power generators, and found that forecasting errors are better than the conventional methods. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.
AB - This paper presents a wind power forecasting method with confidence interval. Wind speed forecasts are calculated by regression models using GPV (Grid Point Vale) weather forecasts. The forecasts are adjusted by fuzzy inference using the latest error. The wind power forecasts are translated from the wind speed forecasts using two power-curves. They are combined by fuzzy inference depending on wind direction. The error confidence interval models are generated for each forecasting target time. Each confidence interval is combined by another fuzzy inference. The proposed method has been applied to actual power generators, and found that forecasting errors are better than the conventional methods. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80053651926&partnerID=8YFLogxK
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U2 - 10.1109/MWSCAS.2011.6026398
DO - 10.1109/MWSCAS.2011.6026398
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:80053651926
SN - 9781612848570
T3 - Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems
BT - 54th IEEE International Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems, MWSCAS 2011
T2 - 54th IEEE International Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems, MWSCAS 2011
Y2 - 7 August 2011 through 10 August 2011
ER -