Adaptive prediction method based on alternating decision forests with considerations for generalization ability

Shotaro Misawa*, Kenta Mikawa, Masayuki Goto

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Many machine learning algorithms have been proposed and applied to a wide range of prediction problems in the field of industrial management. Lately, the amount of data is increasing and machine learning algorithms with low computational costs and efficient ensemble methods are needed. Alternating Decision Forest (ADF) is an efficient ensemble method known for its high performance and low computational costs. ADFs introduce weights representing the degree of prediction accuracy for each piece of training data and randomly select attribute variables for each node. This method can effectively construct an ensemble model that can predict training data accurately while allowing each decision tree to retain different features. However, outliers can cause overfitting, and since candidates of branch conditions vary for nodes in ADFs, there is a possibility that prediction accuracy will deteriorate because the fitness of training data is highly restrained. In order to improve prediction accuracy, we focus on the prediction results for new data. That is to say, we introduce bootstrap sampling so that the algorithm can generate out-of-bag (OOB) datasets for each tree in the training phase. Additionally, we construct an effective ensemble of decision trees to improve generalization ability by considering the prediction accuracy for OOB data. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, we conduct simulation experiments using the UCI machine learning repository. This method provides robust and accurate predictions for datasets with many attribute variables.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)384-391
Number of pages8
JournalIndustrial Engineering and Management Systems
Volume16
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017 Sep

Keywords

  • Alternating Decision Forests
  • Big Data
  • Data Mining
  • Prediction Model
  • Random Forests

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Social Sciences(all)
  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)

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