An online estimation of actual load and PV output in distribution system with pv actual activated capacity estimating method

This paper presents an online method for estimating actual load and photovoltaic generation (PV) output in distribution system with PV actual activated capacity estimation. In recent years, it is planned to introduce the renewable energy on a large scale into the power system in order to achieve the low carbon society. However, PV has a negative effect on the distribution system. When PV is introduced on a large scale into distribution system, it is difficult to know accommodating amount of load in accident restoration. Because measured load contains load in consumers and PV output. Thus, it is necessary to estimate actual load and PV output online in distribution system. This paper proposes the hybrid method of independent component analysis (ICA) and PV actual activated capacity estimating method. The former has new formulation that is inputted active power of load and insolation. The latter estimates PV actual activated capacity from results of ICA. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated using actual data of load in consumers that is regulated reactive power. The proposed method can estimate actual load and PV output more accurately than a conventional method. Moreover, the proposed method can estimate them accurately even if load is changed rapidly.