Application of non-linear modeling methods to wind power estimation

Yohei Watanabe; Shinji Wakao; Tsutomu Takinami; Kohei Oishi

Application of non-linear modeling methods to wind power estimation

Yohei Watanabe, Shinji Wakao, Tsutomu Takinami, Kohei Oishi

School of Advanced Science and Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To reduce the fluctuation of wind power output by installing storage batteries to wind power generation, accurate estimation of wind power is indispensable. Calculation based on Power Curve, general method to estimate wind power output, often causes unavoidable error due to influences of time fluctuation of wind speed and direction. Therefore, we propose to apply Just-In-Time (JIT) Modeling to the estimation and the forecast of wind power output. JIT Modeling has the advantage that the algorithm is relatively simple. Compared with another non-linear modeling method, we confirmed the validation of JIT Modeling against the estimation and forecasts of wind power output through computational simulations.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition 2007, EWEC 2007
Pages	898-903
Number of pages	6
Publication status	Published - 2007 Dec 1
Event	European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition 2007, EWEC 2007 - Milan, Italy Duration: 2007 May 7 → 2007 May 10

Publication series

Name	European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition 2007, EWEC 2007
Volume	2

Conference

Conference	European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition 2007, EWEC 2007
Country	Italy
City	Milan
Period	07/5/7 → 07/5/10

Keywords

Just-in-time modeling
Neural network
Short-term wind power forecast
Stepwise regression
Wind power estimation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

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Cite this

Application of non-linear modeling methods to wind power estimation. / Watanabe, Yohei; Wakao, Shinji; Takinami, Tsutomu; Oishi, Kohei.

European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition 2007, EWEC 2007. 2007. p. 898-903 (European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition 2007, EWEC 2007; Vol. 2).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

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title = "Application of non-linear modeling methods to wind power estimation",

abstract = "To reduce the fluctuation of wind power output by installing storage batteries to wind power generation, accurate estimation of wind power is indispensable. Calculation based on Power Curve, general method to estimate wind power output, often causes unavoidable error due to influences of time fluctuation of wind speed and direction. Therefore, we propose to apply Just-In-Time (JIT) Modeling to the estimation and the forecast of wind power output. JIT Modeling has the advantage that the algorithm is relatively simple. Compared with another non-linear modeling method, we confirmed the validation of JIT Modeling against the estimation and forecasts of wind power output through computational simulations.",

keywords = "Just-in-time modeling, Neural network, Short-term wind power forecast, Stepwise regression, Wind power estimation",

author = "Yohei Watanabe and Shinji Wakao and Tsutomu Takinami and Kohei Oishi",

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AU - Watanabe, Yohei

AU - Wakao, Shinji

AU - Takinami, Tsutomu

AU - Oishi, Kohei

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N2 - To reduce the fluctuation of wind power output by installing storage batteries to wind power generation, accurate estimation of wind power is indispensable. Calculation based on Power Curve, general method to estimate wind power output, often causes unavoidable error due to influences of time fluctuation of wind speed and direction. Therefore, we propose to apply Just-In-Time (JIT) Modeling to the estimation and the forecast of wind power output. JIT Modeling has the advantage that the algorithm is relatively simple. Compared with another non-linear modeling method, we confirmed the validation of JIT Modeling against the estimation and forecasts of wind power output through computational simulations.

AB - To reduce the fluctuation of wind power output by installing storage batteries to wind power generation, accurate estimation of wind power is indispensable. Calculation based on Power Curve, general method to estimate wind power output, often causes unavoidable error due to influences of time fluctuation of wind speed and direction. Therefore, we propose to apply Just-In-Time (JIT) Modeling to the estimation and the forecast of wind power output. JIT Modeling has the advantage that the algorithm is relatively simple. Compared with another non-linear modeling method, we confirmed the validation of JIT Modeling against the estimation and forecasts of wind power output through computational simulations.

KW - Just-in-time modeling

KW - Neural network

KW - Short-term wind power forecast

KW - Stepwise regression

KW - Wind power estimation

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