Assessment of the channels of transmission of oil price fluctuations to the economy

Farhad Taghi Zadeh Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    5 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    This paper develops a New Keynesian model to examine a theoretical global economy with two basic macroeconomic components: an energy1 producer and an energy consumer. This simple economy uses these two components to evaluate how oil prices affect the consumer economy’s gross domestic product and inflation. This model assumes that changes in the oil price transfer to macro variables through either supply (aggregate supply curve) or demand channels (aggregate demand curve). To examine the effects of this transfer, an Investment-Saving (IS) curve is used to look at the demand side and a Phillips curve is used to analyze the inflationary effects from the supply side. The empirical analysis concludes that movements in the oil price mainly affect the economy through the demand side (shifting the aggregate demand curve) by affecting household expenditures and energy consumption. This analysis provides several additional findings, among which is that easy monetary policies amplify energy demand more than supply, resulting in skyrocketing crude oil prices, which inhibit economic growth.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)5-34
    Number of pages30
    JournalArgumenta Oeconomica
    Volume41
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2018 Jan 1

    Keywords

    • IS curve
    • Monetary policy
    • New Keynesian model
    • Oil prices
    • Phillips curve

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Economics and Econometrics
    • Strategy and Management

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