Business scenario evaluation method using monte carlo simulation on qualitative and quantitative hybrid model

Masaki Samejima, Masanori Akiyoshi, Koshichiro Mitsukuni, Norihisa Komoda

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We propose a business scenario evaluation method using qualitative and quantitative hybrid model. In order to evaluate business factors with qualitative causal relations, we introduce statistical values based on propagation and combination of effects of business factors by Monte Carlo simulation. In propagating an effect, we divide a range of each factor by landmarks and decide an effect to a destination node based on the divided ranges. In combining effects, we decide an effect of each arc using contribution degree and sum all effects. Through applied results to practical models it is confirmed that there are no differences between results obtained by quantitative relations and results obtained by the proposed method at the risk rate of 5%.

Original languageEnglish
JournalIEEJ Transactions on Electronics, Information and Systems
Volume128
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Monte carlo simulation
  • Qualitative and quantitative hybrid model
  • Scenario planning

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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