Business scenario evaluation using monte carlo simulation on qualitative and quantitative hybrid model

Masaki Samejima, Masanori Akiyoshi, Koshichiro Mitsukuni, Norihisa Komoda

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We propose a business scenario evaluation method using a qualitative/quantitative hybrid model. In order to evaluate business factors with qualitative causal relations, we introduce statistical values based on propagation and combination of effects of business factors by Monte Carlo simulation. In propagating an effect, we divide a range of each factor by landmarks and decide an effect to a destination node based on the divided ranges. In combining effects, we determine an effect of each arc using contribution degree and sum all effects. Through applied results to practical models, it is confirmed that there are no differences between results obtained by quantitative relations and results obtained by the proposed method at the risk rate of 5%.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)9-18
Number of pages10
JournalElectrical Engineering in Japan (English translation of Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi)
Volume170
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010 Feb
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Qualitative and quantitative hybrid model
  • Scenario planning

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology

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