Characteristics of time changes on rice production predicted by the MRI's CGCM

H. Toritani, M. Yokozawa, S. Yonemura

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

We estimate the time change of the rice production for every 10 years for a period of 100 years by using the MRI's CGCM containing the transient CO2 experiment, and the crop model named SIMRIW. On this estimation by these models, we choose the `Koshihikari' as a representative cultivar and assume optimal cultivation technologies are adopted. Annual and summer seasons mean air temperature increase almost linearly, and become 2.0 to 3.0 degree C higher after 70 years, 3.0 to 4.0 degree C higher after 100 years, and these temperature changes are almost 1.0 to 2.0 degree C smaller than the predictions of previous studies. As a result of this, the cultivated area of `Koshihikari' is estimated to spread northward, and the yield in currently cultivated area is also simulated not to change toward a harsh condition for at least 100 years, under optimal cultivation technologies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages31-40
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - 1998 Jan 1
Externally publishedYes
EventProceedings of the 1997 1st International Conference on Ecosystems and Sustainable Development - Castle of Peniscola, Spain
Duration: 1997 Oct 141997 Oct 16

Other

OtherProceedings of the 1997 1st International Conference on Ecosystems and Sustainable Development
CityCastle of Peniscola, Spain
Period97/10/1497/10/16

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Environmental Science(all)

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  • Cite this

    Toritani, H., Yokozawa, M., & Yonemura, S. (1998). Characteristics of time changes on rice production predicted by the MRI's CGCM. 31-40. Paper presented at Proceedings of the 1997 1st International Conference on Ecosystems and Sustainable Development, Castle of Peniscola, Spain, .