Designing sustainable society scenarios using forecasting

Yuji Mizuno, Yusuke Kishita, Haruna Wada, Maki Hirosaki, Shinichi Fukushige, Yasushi Umeda

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Environmental problems such as resource depletion and climate change are the most serious problems for society and industry. In order to deal with such problems, scenario writing is a useful methodology for envisioning ideal future, such as sustainable society. Although describing these scenarios requires a lot of time and a large amount of work, there is no computational support for it. In order to resolve this problem, this paper proposes a design methodology of scenarios based on forecasting approach, which explores future from current situation. In order to realize computational scenario design support, we formalize the design process as four steps; setting problems, constructing causal networks, describing storylines, and describing scenario texts. And we develop Scenario Design Support System for supporting the scenario design process on a computer. For testing the proposed methodology, we designed "Electric Vehicle Diffused Society Scenario" as a case study. In the case study, proposed process and design support methodology were useful for designing a forecasting scenario.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationICED 11 - 18th International Conference on Engineering Design - Impacting Society Through Engineering Design
Pages135-144
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Externally publishedYes
Event18th International Conference on Engineering Design, ICED 11 - Copenhagen, Denmark
Duration: 2011 Aug 152011 Aug 18

Publication series

NameICED 11 - 18th International Conference on Engineering Design - Impacting Society Through Engineering Design
Volume5

Conference

Conference18th International Conference on Engineering Design, ICED 11
CountryDenmark
CityCopenhagen
Period11/8/1511/8/18

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Scenario
  • Scenario design
  • Sustainable society

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

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  • Cite this

    Mizuno, Y., Kishita, Y., Wada, H., Hirosaki, M., Fukushige, S., & Umeda, Y. (2011). Designing sustainable society scenarios using forecasting. In ICED 11 - 18th International Conference on Engineering Design - Impacting Society Through Engineering Design (pp. 135-144). (ICED 11 - 18th International Conference on Engineering Design - Impacting Society Through Engineering Design; Vol. 5).