Development of sustainable society scenario simulator toward sustainable manufacturing (3rd Report) - Design support of forecasting scenarios

Developing scenarios is a hopeful approach for drawing visions and pathways of sustainable manufacturing toward sustainable society. Sustainable Society Scenario (3S) Simulator is an integrated design support environment that supports understanding, describing, and analyzing scenarios. This paper proposes a design support method of scenarios in 3S Simulator. Proposed method supports designing scenarios in forecasting manner, in which futures are explored starting from the present. We employ two-leveled causal networks for supporting scenario design in structuring ideas and describing the structured ideas into a scenario, by expressing the structure of the object world of the scenario. In the case study, we verified that the outlines and details of a scenario are deployed from the causal networks. Using 3S Simulator, the relationship between the causal networks and the descriptions of a scenario is clarified. This supports a designer to understand the scenario rationally. As the conclusion, proposed method supports designing scenarios in forecasting manner.