Ecophysiological and climatological effects on distribution of vector species and malaria incidence in India

Takumi Kaga, Shunji Ohta

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    4 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The magnitude of regional malaria risk is dependent primarily on the dynamics and distribution of the vector species, which are determined mainly by climate conditions. A coupled model with ecophysiological and climatological factors was developed to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of the five species of dominant malaria vectors in monsoon Asia. Here, we examined how the potential distribution obtained from the model could explain trends in malaria incidence observed in India, which has the highest number of confirmed cases of malaria in Asia. Most notably, there was a significant positive correlation between annual malaria incidences and the maximum generation number of vectors for each state (p < 0.001). Malaria incidence tended to increase exponentially as vector generation number increased. In addition, the interannual variation in observed regional malaria incidences was synchronized with that of the potential number of vector generations. The observed seasonal peak of malaria incidences corresponded closely to the simulated appearance period of vector species, except for intensively irrigated areas that experience anthropogenic impacts on hydrologic conditions. Simulated vector distributions effectively expressed spatial and temporal prevalence of malaria in India. This novel approach to modeling based on vector ecology is an effective method for assessing malaria risk.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)4704-4714
    Number of pages11
    JournalInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
    Volume9
    Issue number12
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2012 Dec

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    Keywords

    • Anopheles
    • Climate factors
    • Coupled model
    • Ecophysiology
    • Malaria incidence
    • Vector ecology

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
    • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

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