Effect of a global warming-induced increase in typhoon intensity on urban productivity in Taiwan

Miguel Esteban*, Christian Webersik, Tomoya Shibayama

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)


A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future due to the warming effect of greenhouse gases on surface sea temperatures. The aim of this paper is to establish what would be the likely decrease in the productivity of urban workers due to an increase in tropical cyclone-related downtime. The methodology used simulates future tropical cyclones by magnifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2008. It then uses a Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. It shows how annual downtime from tropical cyclones could increase from 1.5% nowadays to up to 2.2% by 2085, an increase of almost 50%. This decrease in productivity could result in a loss of up to 0.7% of the annual Taiwanese GDP by 2085.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)151-163
Number of pages13
JournalSustainability Science
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2009


  • Climate change
  • Intensity increase
  • Productivity
  • Tropical cyclone
  • Typhoon
  • Urban areas

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Health(social science)
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Ecology
  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Nature and Landscape Conservation
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law


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