Ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge: A case study of 2013 typhoon haiyan

Ryota Nakamura, Tomoya Shibayama

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

The object of this study is to evaluate an ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge by using a case of Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and its associated storm surge. A simple numerical model composed of ARW-WRF, FVCOM and SWAN is employed as a forecast system for storm surge. This ensemble system can successfully forecast storm surge 3-4 days before it happened. However, the typhoons in almost all ensemble members were underpredicted probably because of its difficulty in forecasting a track and central pressure of highly intense typhoon. This leads to the underestimation of a prediction of storm surges around Leyte Gulf. Compensating the underestimation of forecasted extreme storm surge, it can be important to not only examine the ensemble mean among members but also consider the phase-shifted manipulation and the worst ensemble member in the case where the extreme storm surge is forecasted. In addition, the ensemble forecast system can have a potential to determine the time at which the peak of extreme surge appears with a high precision.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016
EditorsPatrick Lynett
PublisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
ISBN (Electronic)9780989661133
Publication statusPublished - 2016
Event35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016 - Antalya, Turkey
Duration: 2016 Nov 172016 Nov 20

Publication series

NameProceedings of the Coastal Engineering Conference
Volume35
ISSN (Print)0161-3782

Other

Other35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016
CountryTurkey
CityAntalya
Period16/11/1716/11/20

Keywords

  • Ensemble forecast
  • FVCOM
  • Storm surge
  • Typhoon Haiyan
  • WRF

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Ocean Engineering
  • Oceanography

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