Ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge

A case study of 2013 typhoon haiyan

Ryota Nakamura, Tomoya Shibayama

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    Abstract

    The object of this study is to evaluate an ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge by using a case of Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and its associated storm surge. A simple numerical model composed of ARW-WRF, FVCOM and SWAN is employed as a forecast system for storm surge. This ensemble system can successfully forecast storm surge 3-4 days before it happened. However, the typhoons in almost all ensemble members were underpredicted probably because of its difficulty in forecasting a track and central pressure of highly intense typhoon. This leads to the underestimation of a prediction of storm surges around Leyte Gulf. Compensating the underestimation of forecasted extreme storm surge, it can be important to not only examine the ensemble mean among members but also consider the phase-shifted manipulation and the worst ensemble member in the case where the extreme storm surge is forecasted. In addition, the ensemble forecast system can have a potential to determine the time at which the peak of extreme surge appears with a high precision.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings of the 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016
    PublisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
    Volume35
    ISBN (Electronic)9780989661133
    Publication statusPublished - 2016
    Event35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016 - Antalya, Turkey
    Duration: 2016 Nov 172016 Nov 20

    Other

    Other35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016
    CountryTurkey
    CityAntalya
    Period16/11/1716/11/20

    Fingerprint

    storm surge
    typhoon
    forecast
    Typhoon Haiyan 2013
    Numerical models
    prediction

    Keywords

    • Ensemble forecast
    • FVCOM
    • Storm surge
    • Typhoon Haiyan
    • WRF

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Civil and Structural Engineering
    • Ocean Engineering
    • Oceanography

    Cite this

    Nakamura, R., & Shibayama, T. (2016). Ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge: A case study of 2013 typhoon haiyan. In Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016 (Vol. 35). American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).

    Ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge : A case study of 2013 typhoon haiyan. / Nakamura, Ryota; Shibayama, Tomoya.

    Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016. Vol. 35 American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2016.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    Nakamura, R & Shibayama, T 2016, Ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge: A case study of 2013 typhoon haiyan. in Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016. vol. 35, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016, Antalya, Turkey, 16/11/17.
    Nakamura R, Shibayama T. Ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge: A case study of 2013 typhoon haiyan. In Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016. Vol. 35. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). 2016
    Nakamura, Ryota ; Shibayama, Tomoya. / Ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge : A case study of 2013 typhoon haiyan. Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016. Vol. 35 American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2016.
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