Abstract
The object of this study is to evaluate an ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge by using a case of Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and its associated storm surge. A simple numerical model composed of ARW-WRF, FVCOM and SWAN is employed as a forecast system for storm surge. This ensemble system can successfully forecast storm surge 3-4 days before it happened. However, the typhoons in almost all ensemble members were underpredicted probably because of its difficulty in forecasting a track and central pressure of highly intense typhoon. This leads to the underestimation of a prediction of storm surges around Leyte Gulf. Compensating the underestimation of forecasted extreme storm surge, it can be important to not only examine the ensemble mean among members but also consider the phase-shifted manipulation and the worst ensemble member in the case where the extreme storm surge is forecasted. In addition, the ensemble forecast system can have a potential to determine the time at which the peak of extreme surge appears with a high precision.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016 |
| Publisher | American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) |
| Volume | 35 |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 9780989661133 |
| Publication status | Published - 2016 |
| Event | 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016 - Antalya, Turkey Duration: 2016 Nov 17 → 2016 Nov 20 |
Other
| Other | 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016 |
|---|---|
| Country | Turkey |
| City | Antalya |
| Period | 16/11/17 → 16/11/20 |
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Keywords
- Ensemble forecast
- FVCOM
- Storm surge
- Typhoon Haiyan
- WRF
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Civil and Structural Engineering
- Ocean Engineering
- Oceanography
Cite this
Ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge : A case study of 2013 typhoon haiyan. / Nakamura, Ryota; Shibayama, Tomoya.
Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016. Vol. 35 American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2016.Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution
}
TY - GEN
T1 - Ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge
T2 - A case study of 2013 typhoon haiyan
AU - Nakamura, Ryota
AU - Shibayama, Tomoya
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - The object of this study is to evaluate an ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge by using a case of Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and its associated storm surge. A simple numerical model composed of ARW-WRF, FVCOM and SWAN is employed as a forecast system for storm surge. This ensemble system can successfully forecast storm surge 3-4 days before it happened. However, the typhoons in almost all ensemble members were underpredicted probably because of its difficulty in forecasting a track and central pressure of highly intense typhoon. This leads to the underestimation of a prediction of storm surges around Leyte Gulf. Compensating the underestimation of forecasted extreme storm surge, it can be important to not only examine the ensemble mean among members but also consider the phase-shifted manipulation and the worst ensemble member in the case where the extreme storm surge is forecasted. In addition, the ensemble forecast system can have a potential to determine the time at which the peak of extreme surge appears with a high precision.
AB - The object of this study is to evaluate an ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge by using a case of Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and its associated storm surge. A simple numerical model composed of ARW-WRF, FVCOM and SWAN is employed as a forecast system for storm surge. This ensemble system can successfully forecast storm surge 3-4 days before it happened. However, the typhoons in almost all ensemble members were underpredicted probably because of its difficulty in forecasting a track and central pressure of highly intense typhoon. This leads to the underestimation of a prediction of storm surges around Leyte Gulf. Compensating the underestimation of forecasted extreme storm surge, it can be important to not only examine the ensemble mean among members but also consider the phase-shifted manipulation and the worst ensemble member in the case where the extreme storm surge is forecasted. In addition, the ensemble forecast system can have a potential to determine the time at which the peak of extreme surge appears with a high precision.
KW - Ensemble forecast
KW - FVCOM
KW - Storm surge
KW - Typhoon Haiyan
KW - WRF
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85028660333&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
VL - 35
BT - Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016
PB - American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
ER -