Estimation method of prediction interval of solar irradiance based on Just-In-Time modeling for photovoltaic output prediction

Tomohide Yamazaki, Hayato Homma, Shinji Wakao, Yu Fujimoto, Yasuhiro Hayashi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

PV system recently attracts much attention on the back of environmental problems, antinuclear power movements and energy problems. Therefore, a large scale introduction of PV system is expected in the near future. On the other hand, a lot of PV systems connected to the power system bring on some problems. For example, a system voltage often drifts from the norm when the reverse power flow increase. Accordingly, it is necessary to perform an optimal system operation in order to utilize a solar energy to the maximum by installing energy buffers, e.g. storage batteries. Especially, the forecast information i.e., the reliability as well as predicted solar irradiance is essential for the effective operation. In this paper, we propose a way to estimate the prediction interval of the solar irradiance as an index of reliability by using Just-In-Time Modeling (JIT Modeling). We consider the accuracy of the prediction interval under many conditions and derive the high-precision estimation method. In addition, we also talk about the future outlook of this study.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)160-167
Number of pages8
JournalIEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy
Volume135
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015 Mar 1

Keywords

  • Forecast of solar irradiance
  • Just-In-Time modeling
  • Kernel density estimation
  • Photovoltaics
  • Prediction interval

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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