Estimation of increase in storm surge damage due to climate change and sea level rise in the Greater Tokyo area

Sayaka Hoshino, Miguel Esteban*, Takahito Mikami, Hiroshi Takagi, Tomoya Shibayama

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

28 Citations (Scopus)


Sea level rise and an increase in typhoon intensity are two of the expected consequences from future climate change. In the present work, a methodology to change the intensity of tropical cyclones in Japan was developed, which can be used to assess the inundation risk to different areas of the country. As a result, the probability of a storm with an equivalent return period in the year 2100 to that of the worst storm in the 20th century overcoming sea defences around Tokyo Bay could be calculated. The risk of higher storm surges, coupled with different sea-level-rise scenarios, highlights how the dykes around Tokyo or Kawasaki could fail unless adaptation measures against climate change are attempted. The cost of adapting to both of these effects by building higher coastal dykes and raising port areas outside them was quantified. Finally, an estimation of the cost of allowing the areas behind the defences to be flooded was also made, clearly showing that the cost of adaptation measures is clearly lower than the cost of inaction.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)539-565
Number of pages27
JournalNatural Hazards
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2016 Jan 1


  • Sea level rise
  • Storm surge
  • Sustainability of coastal defences
  • Typhoons

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)


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