Estimation of long-term copper demand based on sustainability scenarios: A challenge to sustainable manufacturing industry

Yusuke Kishita, Yuta Inoue, Shinichi Fukushige, Yasushi Umeda, Hideki Kobayashi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

A variety of sustainability scenarios (e.g., IPCC's Emissions Scenarios) have been described toward a sustainable society. While many of them aim at solving climate change problems and they often assume various low-carbon technologies, the problem is that such scenarios hardly examine their feasibility from the viewpoint of resource depletion. In particular, copper is a critical base metal because introducing low-carbon technologies (e.g., electric vehicles and wind power generators) may induce copper consumption. To assess feasibility of existing sustainability scenarios, this paper proposes a method for estimating long-term copper demand based on those scenarios. Our method proposes an integrated model that evaluates world copper demand from two principal aspects of influencing copper consumption - (1) the building of social infrastructure and (2) new products that might disseminate in the future (e.g., electric vehicles and photovoltaic systems). A case analysis on a long-term energy scenario is carried out. Its results reveal that the cumulative copper consumptions in the world exceed the copper reserved in the earth by 2040. The increase in copper consumptions results mainly from world economic growth led by developing countries, while the dissemination of electric vehicles and photovoltaic systems has a minor impact on the consumption increase.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2012
Pages743-751
Number of pages9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Externally publishedYes
EventASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2012 - Chicago, IL, United States
Duration: 2012 Aug 122012 Aug 12

Publication series

NameProceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference
Volume5

Conference

ConferenceASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2012
CountryUnited States
CityChicago, IL
Period12/8/1212/8/12

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design

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    Kishita, Y., Inoue, Y., Fukushige, S., Umeda, Y., & Kobayashi, H. (2012). Estimation of long-term copper demand based on sustainability scenarios: A challenge to sustainable manufacturing industry. In ASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2012 (pp. 743-751). (Proceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference; Vol. 5). https://doi.org/10.1115/DETC2012-70695