Estimation Prediction Interval of Solar Irradiance Based on Just-in-Time Modeling for Photovoltaic Output Prediction

Tomohide Yamazaki, Hayato Homma, Shinji Wakao, Yu Fujimoto, Yasuhiro Hayashi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) systems have recently attracted considerable attention in the context of environmental problems, antinuclear power movements, and energy problems. Therefore, the large-scale introduction of PV systems is expected in the near future. But the connection of many PV systems to the power system leads to problems. For example, the system voltage often drifts from the norm when reverse power flows increase. Accordingly, optimal system operation is required in order to make maximum use of solar energy to the maximum by installing energy buffers such as storage batteries. In particular, in forecast information, knowledge of the reliability as well as the predicted solar irradiance is essential for effective operation. In this paper, we propose a way of estimating the prediction interval of solar irradiance as an index of reliability by using just-in-time modeling. We consider the accuracy of the prediction interval under many conditions and derive a high-precision estimation method. In addition, we also discuss about the future subjects of study.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-10
Number of pages10
JournalElectrical Engineering in Japan (English translation of Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi)
Volume195
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016 May 1

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Optimal systems
Solar energy
Electric potential

Keywords

  • forecast of solar irradiance
  • just-in-time modeling
  • kernel density estimation
  • photovoltaics
  • prediction interval

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology

Cite this

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title = "Estimation Prediction Interval of Solar Irradiance Based on Just-in-Time Modeling for Photovoltaic Output Prediction",
abstract = "Photovoltaic (PV) systems have recently attracted considerable attention in the context of environmental problems, antinuclear power movements, and energy problems. Therefore, the large-scale introduction of PV systems is expected in the near future. But the connection of many PV systems to the power system leads to problems. For example, the system voltage often drifts from the norm when reverse power flows increase. Accordingly, optimal system operation is required in order to make maximum use of solar energy to the maximum by installing energy buffers such as storage batteries. In particular, in forecast information, knowledge of the reliability as well as the predicted solar irradiance is essential for effective operation. In this paper, we propose a way of estimating the prediction interval of solar irradiance as an index of reliability by using just-in-time modeling. We consider the accuracy of the prediction interval under many conditions and derive a high-precision estimation method. In addition, we also discuss about the future subjects of study.",
keywords = "forecast of solar irradiance, just-in-time modeling, kernel density estimation, photovoltaics, prediction interval",
author = "Tomohide Yamazaki and Hayato Homma and Shinji Wakao and Yu Fujimoto and Yasuhiro Hayashi",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimation Prediction Interval of Solar Irradiance Based on Just-in-Time Modeling for Photovoltaic Output Prediction

AU - Yamazaki, Tomohide

AU - Homma, Hayato

AU - Wakao, Shinji

AU - Fujimoto, Yu

AU - Hayashi, Yasuhiro

PY - 2016/5/1

Y1 - 2016/5/1

N2 - Photovoltaic (PV) systems have recently attracted considerable attention in the context of environmental problems, antinuclear power movements, and energy problems. Therefore, the large-scale introduction of PV systems is expected in the near future. But the connection of many PV systems to the power system leads to problems. For example, the system voltage often drifts from the norm when reverse power flows increase. Accordingly, optimal system operation is required in order to make maximum use of solar energy to the maximum by installing energy buffers such as storage batteries. In particular, in forecast information, knowledge of the reliability as well as the predicted solar irradiance is essential for effective operation. In this paper, we propose a way of estimating the prediction interval of solar irradiance as an index of reliability by using just-in-time modeling. We consider the accuracy of the prediction interval under many conditions and derive a high-precision estimation method. In addition, we also discuss about the future subjects of study.

AB - Photovoltaic (PV) systems have recently attracted considerable attention in the context of environmental problems, antinuclear power movements, and energy problems. Therefore, the large-scale introduction of PV systems is expected in the near future. But the connection of many PV systems to the power system leads to problems. For example, the system voltage often drifts from the norm when reverse power flows increase. Accordingly, optimal system operation is required in order to make maximum use of solar energy to the maximum by installing energy buffers such as storage batteries. In particular, in forecast information, knowledge of the reliability as well as the predicted solar irradiance is essential for effective operation. In this paper, we propose a way of estimating the prediction interval of solar irradiance as an index of reliability by using just-in-time modeling. We consider the accuracy of the prediction interval under many conditions and derive a high-precision estimation method. In addition, we also discuss about the future subjects of study.

KW - forecast of solar irradiance

KW - just-in-time modeling

KW - kernel density estimation

KW - photovoltaics

KW - prediction interval

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