A rate control in video coding using an analysis model is described. Video coding and the rate control presented in this paper are MPEG2 and its Test Model since they are known to provide better performance than the conventional one. The rate control can be modeled as a linear feedback system with some statistical assumptions. By this model, we can adjust the feedback response of the system. It is required to generate constant bits per picture for the communication application since it gives the shorter delay by using a smaller area of the buffer memory. Thus, the method to improve the tracking ability to the target bit in a certain period is proposed. It can generate more precise bit amount for a group of pictures (GOP) than the normal case. The deviation from the target value at the GOP level can be lowered to less than 1/70 in the simulation It can be applied to any video coding which determines a quantization step at every macroblock.