Forecast method of solar irradiance with just-in-time modeling

Takanobu Suzuki, Yusuke Goto, Takahiro Terazono, Shinji Wakao, Takashi Oozeki

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    24 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model (JIT Modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over wide controlledarea of each electric power company by utilizing the measured data on the 44 observation points throughout Japan offered by JMA and the 64 points around Kanto by NEDO. Finally, we propose the application forecast method of solar irradiance to the point which is difficulty in compiling the database. And we consider the influence of different GPV default time on solar irradiance prediction.

    Original languageEnglish
    JournalIEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy
    Volume131
    Issue number11
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2011

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    Keywords

    • Black-box modeling
    • GPV data
    • Just-in-time modeling
    • Solar irradiance forecast
    • Solar irradiance over wide area

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
    • Energy Engineering and Power Technology

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