Forecast method of solar irradiance with just-in-time modeling

Takanobu Suzuki, Yusuke Goto, Takahiro Terazono, Shinji Wakao, Takashi Oozeki

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

24 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model (JIT Modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over wide controlledarea of each electric power company by utilizing the measured data on the 44 observation points throughout Japan offered by JMA and the 64 points around Kanto by NEDO. Finally, we propose the application forecast method of solar irradiance to the point which is difficulty in compiling the database. And we consider the influence of different GPV default time on solar irradiance prediction.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)912-919+5
JournalIEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy
Volume131
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011 Dec 1

Keywords

  • Black-box modeling
  • GPV data
  • Just-in-time modeling
  • Solar irradiance forecast
  • Solar irradiance over wide area

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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