Forecast method of solar irradiance with just-in-time modeling

Takanobu Suzuki; Yusuke Goto; Takahiro Terazono; Shinji Wakao; Takashi Oozeki

doi:10.1541/ieejpes.131.912

Forecast method of solar irradiance with just-in-time modeling

Takanobu Suzuki, Yusuke Goto, Takahiro Terazono, Shinji Wakao, Takashi Oozeki

School of Advanced Science and Engineering

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model (JIT Modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over wide controlledarea of each electric power company by utilizing the measured data on the 44 observation points throughout Japan offered by JMA and the 64 points around Kanto by NEDO. Finally, we propose the application forecast method of solar irradiance to the point which is difficulty in compiling the database. And we consider the influence of different GPV default time on solar irradiance prediction.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	912-919+5
Journal	IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy
Volume	131
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1541/ieejpes.131.912
Publication status	Published - 2011 Dec 1

Keywords

Black-box modeling
GPV data
Just-in-time modeling
Solar irradiance forecast
Solar irradiance over wide area

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Energy Engineering and Power Technology
Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Access to Document

10.1541/ieejpes.131.912

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Forecast method of solar irradiance with just-in-time modeling'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this

@article{4c1e0eb1d8aa4265ab5c222ccbffb1ea,

title = "Forecast method of solar irradiance with just-in-time modeling",

abstract = "PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model (JIT Modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over wide controlledarea of each electric power company by utilizing the measured data on the 44 observation points throughout Japan offered by JMA and the 64 points around Kanto by NEDO. Finally, we propose the application forecast method of solar irradiance to the point which is difficulty in compiling the database. And we consider the influence of different GPV default time on solar irradiance prediction.",

keywords = "Black-box modeling, GPV data, Just-in-time modeling, Solar irradiance forecast, Solar irradiance over wide area",

author = "Takanobu Suzuki and Yusuke Goto and Takahiro Terazono and Shinji Wakao and Takashi Oozeki",

year = "2011",

month = dec,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1541/ieejpes.131.912",

language = "English",

volume = "131",

pages = "912--919+5",

journal = "IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy",

issn = "0385-4213",

publisher = "The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan",

number = "11",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Forecast method of solar irradiance with just-in-time modeling

AU - Suzuki, Takanobu

AU - Goto, Yusuke

AU - Terazono, Takahiro

AU - Wakao, Shinji

AU - Oozeki, Takashi

PY - 2011/12/1

Y1 - 2011/12/1

N2 - PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model (JIT Modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over wide controlledarea of each electric power company by utilizing the measured data on the 44 observation points throughout Japan offered by JMA and the 64 points around Kanto by NEDO. Finally, we propose the application forecast method of solar irradiance to the point which is difficulty in compiling the database. And we consider the influence of different GPV default time on solar irradiance prediction.

AB - PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model (JIT Modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over wide controlledarea of each electric power company by utilizing the measured data on the 44 observation points throughout Japan offered by JMA and the 64 points around Kanto by NEDO. Finally, we propose the application forecast method of solar irradiance to the point which is difficulty in compiling the database. And we consider the influence of different GPV default time on solar irradiance prediction.

KW - Black-box modeling

KW - GPV data

KW - Just-in-time modeling

KW - Solar irradiance forecast

KW - Solar irradiance over wide area

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=82255195296&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=82255195296&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1541/ieejpes.131.912

DO - 10.1541/ieejpes.131.912

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:82255195296

VL - 131

SP - 912-919+5

JO - IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy

JF - IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy

SN - 0385-4213

IS - 11

ER -