オープンデータに基づく電力スポット市場のエリア価格予測——複数予測スキームの統合アプローチの検討——

Translated title of the contribution: Forecast of area prices in Japanese day-ahead electricity market using open data ——Examination of approach to combine multiple forecasting schemes——

Manaka Omura*, Yu Fujimoto, Yasuhiro Hayashi, Toshiyuki Sawa, Hiroto Sasaki, Naoto Fukuyama, Yoshitaka Nishino

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Forecasting the electricity spot market price is important in planning efficient power generation and demand schedules. It has become common for electric power utilities to use several commercial products of market price forecasts in their daily operations. Therefore, this study proposes a method of combining forecasts to use these products efficiently and improve forecasting accuracy. The method aims to capture the features of the component models’ results considering situations by using open data as explanatory variables. The result estimated as the less prediction error in some situations obtains high confidence during combining forecasts in same situation. To evaluate the effectiveness of the method of combining forecasts, numerical experiments were conducted on all kinds of area price in the Japan Electric Power Exchange. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first paper that conducted forecasts for all nine area prices and reported the forecasting accuracy of the proposed forecasting method. The results indicate that the method of combining forecasts is a promising way to improve the accuracy of each component forecasts.

Translated title of the contributionForecast of area prices in Japanese day-ahead electricity market using open data ——Examination of approach to combine multiple forecasting schemes——
Original languageJapanese
Pages (from-to)366-373
Number of pages8
JournalIEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy
Volume141
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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