Forecasting the wind generation using a two-stage network based on meteorological information

Shu Fan, James R. Liao, Ryuichi Yokoyama, Luonan Chen, Wei Jen Lee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

168 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper proposes a practical and effective model for the generation forecasting of a wind farm with an emphasis on its scheduling and trading in a wholesale electricity market. A novel forecasting model is developed based on indepth investigations of meteorological information. This model adopts a two-stage hybrid network with Bayesian clustering by dynamics and support vector regression. The proposed structure is robust with different input data types and can deal with the nonstationarity of wind speed and generation series well. Once the network is trained, we can straightforward predict the 48-h ahead wind power generation. To demonstrate the effectiveness, the model is applied and tested on a 74-MW wind farm located in the southwest Oklahoma of the United States.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)474-482
Number of pages9
JournalIEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion
Volume24
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009

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Keywords

  • Machine learning
  • Meteorology
  • Nonstationarity
  • Wind generation forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology

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