Abstract
It is currently feared that the increase in surface sea temperature resulting from increasing levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere could result in higher tropical cyclone intensity in the future. Although the economic consequences have been studied for a number of developed countries, very little work has been done on developing countries. The present paper assesses the likely effects that increased typhoon intensity will have on damage to housing by the year 2085 in the Philippines, using a Monte Carlo simulation that magnifies the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2008. The simulation shows that direct damage to housing could increase between 17 and 58%, depending on the adaptive capacity of each region in the Philippines and assuming the latter remains constant between now and 2085. The results clearly suggest the need to increase the resilience of local communities against the possible consequences of climate change.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 51-60 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Climate Research |
| Volume | 56 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2013 Mar 27 |
Fingerprint
Keywords
- Climate change
- Housing damage
- Intensity increase
- Philippines
- Tropical cyclone
- Vulnerability
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Environmental Chemistry
- Environmental Science(all)
- Atmospheric Science
Cite this
Global warming and tropical cyclone damage to housing in the Philippines. / Esteban, Miguel; Stromberg, Per; Gasparatos, Alexandros; Thompson-Pomeroy, Dexter.
In: Climate Research, Vol. 56, No. 1, 27.03.2013, p. 51-60.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Global warming and tropical cyclone damage to housing in the Philippines
AU - Esteban, Miguel
AU - Stromberg, Per
AU - Gasparatos, Alexandros
AU - Thompson-Pomeroy, Dexter
PY - 2013/3/27
Y1 - 2013/3/27
N2 - It is currently feared that the increase in surface sea temperature resulting from increasing levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere could result in higher tropical cyclone intensity in the future. Although the economic consequences have been studied for a number of developed countries, very little work has been done on developing countries. The present paper assesses the likely effects that increased typhoon intensity will have on damage to housing by the year 2085 in the Philippines, using a Monte Carlo simulation that magnifies the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2008. The simulation shows that direct damage to housing could increase between 17 and 58%, depending on the adaptive capacity of each region in the Philippines and assuming the latter remains constant between now and 2085. The results clearly suggest the need to increase the resilience of local communities against the possible consequences of climate change.
AB - It is currently feared that the increase in surface sea temperature resulting from increasing levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere could result in higher tropical cyclone intensity in the future. Although the economic consequences have been studied for a number of developed countries, very little work has been done on developing countries. The present paper assesses the likely effects that increased typhoon intensity will have on damage to housing by the year 2085 in the Philippines, using a Monte Carlo simulation that magnifies the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2008. The simulation shows that direct damage to housing could increase between 17 and 58%, depending on the adaptive capacity of each region in the Philippines and assuming the latter remains constant between now and 2085. The results clearly suggest the need to increase the resilience of local communities against the possible consequences of climate change.
KW - Climate change
KW - Housing damage
KW - Intensity increase
KW - Philippines
KW - Tropical cyclone
KW - Vulnerability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84875313693&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84875313693&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3354/cr01134
DO - 10.3354/cr01134
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84875313693
VL - 56
SP - 51
EP - 60
JO - Climate Research
JF - Climate Research
SN - 0936-577X
IS - 1
ER -