Human judgment under sample space ignorance

Michael Smithson, Thomas Bartos, Kazuhisa Takemura

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)135-150
Number of pages16
JournalRisk, Decision and Policy
Volume5
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2000 Jan 1
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Sample space
Imprecise Probabilities
Upper and Lower Probabilities
Subjective Probability
research program
Empirical Research
Judgment
Human
Ignorance
Estimate

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Philosophy
  • Geochemistry and Petrology

Cite this

Human judgment under sample space ignorance. / Smithson, Michael; Bartos, Thomas; Takemura, Kazuhisa.

In: Risk, Decision and Policy, Vol. 5, No. 2, 01.01.2000, p. 135-150.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Smithson, Michael ; Bartos, Thomas ; Takemura, Kazuhisa. / Human judgment under sample space ignorance. In: Risk, Decision and Policy. 2000 ; Vol. 5, No. 2. pp. 135-150.
@article{7f0f02c6564a46d381c15698070b4c9e,
title = "Human judgment under sample space ignorance",
abstract = "This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.",
author = "Michael Smithson and Thomas Bartos and Kazuhisa Takemura",
year = "2000",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1017/S1357530900000144",
language = "English",
volume = "5",
pages = "135--150",
journal = "Risk, Decision and Policy",
issn = "1357-5309",
publisher = "Chapman & Hall",
number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Human judgment under sample space ignorance

AU - Smithson, Michael

AU - Bartos, Thomas

AU - Takemura, Kazuhisa

PY - 2000/1/1

Y1 - 2000/1/1

N2 - This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.

AB - This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85008789325&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85008789325&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1017/S1357530900000144

DO - 10.1017/S1357530900000144

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85008789325

VL - 5

SP - 135

EP - 150

JO - Risk, Decision and Policy

JF - Risk, Decision and Policy

SN - 1357-5309

IS - 2

ER -