Human judgment under sample space ignorance

Michael Smithson, Thomas Bartos, Kazuhisa Takemura

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)135-150
Number of pages16
JournalRisk, Decision and Policy
Volume5
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2000 Jan 1
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Philosophy
  • Geochemistry and Petrology

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