Increased Variability of Thailand's Chao Phraya River Peak Season Flow and Its Association With ENSO Variability: Evidence From Tree Ring δ18O

Chenxi Xu, Brendan M. Buckley, Parichart Promchote, S. Y.Simon Wang, Nathsuda Pumijumnong, Wenling An, Masaki Sano, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Zhengtang Guo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We present a statistically robust reconstruction of Thailand's Chao Phraya River peak season streamflow (CPRPF) that spans the 202 years from 1804 to 2005 CE. Our reconstruction is based on tree ring δ18O series derived from three Pinus merkusii sites from Laos and Thailand. The regional δ18O index accounts for 57% of the observed variance of CPRPF. Spatial correlation and 21-year running correlation analyses reveal that CPRPF is greatly influenced by regional precipitation variations associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Periods of enhanced and reduced ENSO activity are associated with strong and weak ENSO-streamflow correlation, respectively. At the longer timescale, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) appears to modulate the ENSO-streamflow correlations, with the most extreme flood events along the Chao Phraya River occurring during periods of increased frequency of La Niña events that coincide with extended cold phases of the PDO. The CPRPF reconstruction could aid management planning for Thailand's water resources.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)4863-4872
Number of pages10
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume46
Issue number9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019 May 16
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Asian Summer Monsoon
  • Chao Phraya River streamflow reconstruction
  • El Niño–Southern Oscillation
  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation
  • Pinus merkusii tree ring δO
  • tropical dendroclimatology

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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