Interval prediction of annual maximum demand using grey dynamic model

H. Morita, T. Kase, Y. Tamura, S. Iwamoto

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    72 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    This paper proposes an interval prediction of the upper and lower bound values of load demand using the grey dynamic model in grey system theory. Supply and demand in power system planning and operation are required to be balanced. A marginal supply capability against accidental demands or faults is also required. The confidence interval can become an index for determining the marginal supply capability. The interval prediction using the grey dynamic model is illustrated using an example. The results are compared with the actual demands and with those obtained from a linear single regression model.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)409-412
    Number of pages4
    JournalInternational Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
    Volume18
    Issue number7
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1996 Oct

    Keywords

    • Grey dynamic model
    • Grey system theory
    • Load forecasting
    • Power system

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
    • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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