Interval prediction of annual maximum demand using grey dynamic model

H. Morita, T. Kase, Y. Tamura, S. Iwamoto

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    67 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    This paper proposes an interval prediction of the upper and lower bound values of load demand using the grey dynamic model in grey system theory. Supply and demand in power system planning and operation are required to be balanced. A marginal supply capability against accidental demands or faults is also required. The confidence interval can become an index for determining the marginal supply capability. The interval prediction using the grey dynamic model is illustrated using an example. The results are compared with the actual demands and with those obtained from a linear single regression model.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)409-412
    Number of pages4
    JournalInternational Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
    Volume18
    Issue number7
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1996 Oct

    Fingerprint

    Dynamic models
    System theory
    Planning

    Keywords

    • Grey dynamic model
    • Grey system theory
    • Load forecasting
    • Power system

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
    • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

    Cite this

    Interval prediction of annual maximum demand using grey dynamic model. / Morita, H.; Kase, T.; Tamura, Y.; Iwamoto, S.

    In: International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, Vol. 18, No. 7, 10.1996, p. 409-412.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Morita, H. ; Kase, T. ; Tamura, Y. ; Iwamoto, S. / Interval prediction of annual maximum demand using grey dynamic model. In: International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems. 1996 ; Vol. 18, No. 7. pp. 409-412.
    @article{eb27bd445cfc4a54826abba83700e834,
    title = "Interval prediction of annual maximum demand using grey dynamic model",
    abstract = "This paper proposes an interval prediction of the upper and lower bound values of load demand using the grey dynamic model in grey system theory. Supply and demand in power system planning and operation are required to be balanced. A marginal supply capability against accidental demands or faults is also required. The confidence interval can become an index for determining the marginal supply capability. The interval prediction using the grey dynamic model is illustrated using an example. The results are compared with the actual demands and with those obtained from a linear single regression model.",
    keywords = "Grey dynamic model, Grey system theory, Load forecasting, Power system",
    author = "H. Morita and T. Kase and Y. Tamura and S. Iwamoto",
    year = "1996",
    month = "10",
    doi = "10.1016/0142-0615(95)00019-4",
    language = "English",
    volume = "18",
    pages = "409--412",
    journal = "International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems",
    issn = "0142-0615",
    publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
    number = "7",

    }

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Interval prediction of annual maximum demand using grey dynamic model

    AU - Morita, H.

    AU - Kase, T.

    AU - Tamura, Y.

    AU - Iwamoto, S.

    PY - 1996/10

    Y1 - 1996/10

    N2 - This paper proposes an interval prediction of the upper and lower bound values of load demand using the grey dynamic model in grey system theory. Supply and demand in power system planning and operation are required to be balanced. A marginal supply capability against accidental demands or faults is also required. The confidence interval can become an index for determining the marginal supply capability. The interval prediction using the grey dynamic model is illustrated using an example. The results are compared with the actual demands and with those obtained from a linear single regression model.

    AB - This paper proposes an interval prediction of the upper and lower bound values of load demand using the grey dynamic model in grey system theory. Supply and demand in power system planning and operation are required to be balanced. A marginal supply capability against accidental demands or faults is also required. The confidence interval can become an index for determining the marginal supply capability. The interval prediction using the grey dynamic model is illustrated using an example. The results are compared with the actual demands and with those obtained from a linear single regression model.

    KW - Grey dynamic model

    KW - Grey system theory

    KW - Load forecasting

    KW - Power system

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0030269352&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0030269352&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    U2 - 10.1016/0142-0615(95)00019-4

    DO - 10.1016/0142-0615(95)00019-4

    M3 - Article

    AN - SCOPUS:0030269352

    VL - 18

    SP - 409

    EP - 412

    JO - International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems

    JF - International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems

    SN - 0142-0615

    IS - 7

    ER -