Large-scale evaluation of the effects of adaptation to climate change by shifting transplanting date on rice production and quality in Japan

Yasushi Ishigooka, Shin Fukui, Toshihiro Hasegawa, Tsuneo Kuwagata, Motoki Nishimori, Motohiko Kondo

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    3 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    We evaluated the effect of projected increasing temperatures due to climate change on the yield and quality of rice, as well as the effectiveness of shifting the transplanting date as an adaptation measure, throughout Japan. As an indicator of rice quality, we adopted the heat stress index HD_m26, which is related to the decreased percentage of first grade rice due to high temperature, calculated as the cumulative temperature within 20 days after the heading date. We used a process-based rice growth model to assess the effect. We implemented the model for the period 1981-2100, and shifted the transplanting dates at 7-day intervals from -70 to +70 days from the standard transplanting date. The estimated yield was categorized into three classes with different degrees of quality degradation risk according to values of HD_ m26. Relative to the current transplanting date, nationwide total production was estimated to increase slightly in most climate change scenarios, although the proportion of production with quality degradation risk may increase with the rise in temperature. It may be possible to avoid this increased risk while maintaining total production by selecting an optimum transplanting date in consideration of both yield and quality. However, a large decrease in yield was found in some areas, suggesting that the current rice producing regions in Japan would become separated into suitable and unsuitable areas as temperatures increase.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)156-173
    Number of pages18
    JournalJournal of Agricultural Meteorology
    Volume73
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2017

    Fingerprint

    rice
    climate change
    Japan
    temperature
    degradation
    heading
    heat sums
    growth models
    heat stress
    effect
    evaluation

    Keywords

    • CO fertilization effect
    • Heat stress index
    • Process-based rice simulation model
    • Rice yield

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Agronomy and Crop Science
    • Atmospheric Science

    Cite this

    Large-scale evaluation of the effects of adaptation to climate change by shifting transplanting date on rice production and quality in Japan. / Ishigooka, Yasushi; Fukui, Shin; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Kuwagata, Tsuneo; Nishimori, Motoki; Kondo, Motohiko.

    In: Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, Vol. 73, No. 4, 2017, p. 156-173.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Ishigooka, Yasushi ; Fukui, Shin ; Hasegawa, Toshihiro ; Kuwagata, Tsuneo ; Nishimori, Motoki ; Kondo, Motohiko. / Large-scale evaluation of the effects of adaptation to climate change by shifting transplanting date on rice production and quality in Japan. In: Journal of Agricultural Meteorology. 2017 ; Vol. 73, No. 4. pp. 156-173.
    @article{14a994fa89444524a0ef52561062f8bf,
    title = "Large-scale evaluation of the effects of adaptation to climate change by shifting transplanting date on rice production and quality in Japan",
    abstract = "We evaluated the effect of projected increasing temperatures due to climate change on the yield and quality of rice, as well as the effectiveness of shifting the transplanting date as an adaptation measure, throughout Japan. As an indicator of rice quality, we adopted the heat stress index HD_m26, which is related to the decreased percentage of first grade rice due to high temperature, calculated as the cumulative temperature within 20 days after the heading date. We used a process-based rice growth model to assess the effect. We implemented the model for the period 1981-2100, and shifted the transplanting dates at 7-day intervals from -70 to +70 days from the standard transplanting date. The estimated yield was categorized into three classes with different degrees of quality degradation risk according to values of HD_ m26. Relative to the current transplanting date, nationwide total production was estimated to increase slightly in most climate change scenarios, although the proportion of production with quality degradation risk may increase with the rise in temperature. It may be possible to avoid this increased risk while maintaining total production by selecting an optimum transplanting date in consideration of both yield and quality. However, a large decrease in yield was found in some areas, suggesting that the current rice producing regions in Japan would become separated into suitable and unsuitable areas as temperatures increase.",
    keywords = "CO fertilization effect, Heat stress index, Process-based rice simulation model, Rice yield",
    author = "Yasushi Ishigooka and Shin Fukui and Toshihiro Hasegawa and Tsuneo Kuwagata and Motoki Nishimori and Motohiko Kondo",
    year = "2017",
    doi = "10.2480/agrmet.D-16-00024",
    language = "English",
    volume = "73",
    pages = "156--173",
    journal = "J. AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY",
    issn = "0021-8588",
    publisher = "Society of Agricultural Meteorology of Japan/Nihon Nogyo Kisho Gakkai",
    number = "4",

    }

    TY - JOUR

    T1 - Large-scale evaluation of the effects of adaptation to climate change by shifting transplanting date on rice production and quality in Japan

    AU - Ishigooka, Yasushi

    AU - Fukui, Shin

    AU - Hasegawa, Toshihiro

    AU - Kuwagata, Tsuneo

    AU - Nishimori, Motoki

    AU - Kondo, Motohiko

    PY - 2017

    Y1 - 2017

    N2 - We evaluated the effect of projected increasing temperatures due to climate change on the yield and quality of rice, as well as the effectiveness of shifting the transplanting date as an adaptation measure, throughout Japan. As an indicator of rice quality, we adopted the heat stress index HD_m26, which is related to the decreased percentage of first grade rice due to high temperature, calculated as the cumulative temperature within 20 days after the heading date. We used a process-based rice growth model to assess the effect. We implemented the model for the period 1981-2100, and shifted the transplanting dates at 7-day intervals from -70 to +70 days from the standard transplanting date. The estimated yield was categorized into three classes with different degrees of quality degradation risk according to values of HD_ m26. Relative to the current transplanting date, nationwide total production was estimated to increase slightly in most climate change scenarios, although the proportion of production with quality degradation risk may increase with the rise in temperature. It may be possible to avoid this increased risk while maintaining total production by selecting an optimum transplanting date in consideration of both yield and quality. However, a large decrease in yield was found in some areas, suggesting that the current rice producing regions in Japan would become separated into suitable and unsuitable areas as temperatures increase.

    AB - We evaluated the effect of projected increasing temperatures due to climate change on the yield and quality of rice, as well as the effectiveness of shifting the transplanting date as an adaptation measure, throughout Japan. As an indicator of rice quality, we adopted the heat stress index HD_m26, which is related to the decreased percentage of first grade rice due to high temperature, calculated as the cumulative temperature within 20 days after the heading date. We used a process-based rice growth model to assess the effect. We implemented the model for the period 1981-2100, and shifted the transplanting dates at 7-day intervals from -70 to +70 days from the standard transplanting date. The estimated yield was categorized into three classes with different degrees of quality degradation risk according to values of HD_ m26. Relative to the current transplanting date, nationwide total production was estimated to increase slightly in most climate change scenarios, although the proportion of production with quality degradation risk may increase with the rise in temperature. It may be possible to avoid this increased risk while maintaining total production by selecting an optimum transplanting date in consideration of both yield and quality. However, a large decrease in yield was found in some areas, suggesting that the current rice producing regions in Japan would become separated into suitable and unsuitable areas as temperatures increase.

    KW - CO fertilization effect

    KW - Heat stress index

    KW - Process-based rice simulation model

    KW - Rice yield

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85031278966&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85031278966&partnerID=8YFLogxK

    U2 - 10.2480/agrmet.D-16-00024

    DO - 10.2480/agrmet.D-16-00024

    M3 - Article

    VL - 73

    SP - 156

    EP - 173

    JO - J. AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY

    JF - J. AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY

    SN - 0021-8588

    IS - 4

    ER -