Methodology for the estimation of the increase in time loss due to future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan

Miguel Esteban, Christian Webersik, Tomoya Shibayama

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

26 Citations (Scopus)


The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. The methodology outlined has a range of applications, and the present paper shows as an example the calculation of the expected cost of mitigation of the increased downtime for Japanese ports by 2085 for a variety of economic growth scenarios.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)555-578
Number of pages24
JournalClimatic Change
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2010 Jan 1


ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Atmospheric Science

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