Modeling cyclone-related precipitation changes in future climates using WRF model and CMIP5 output data

Martin Mäll, Ülo Suursaar, Tomoya Shibayama, Ryota Nakamura

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperpeer-review

Abstract

Heavy precipitation from extratropical cyclones (ETCs) can have serious environmental and societal impacts. The aim of the study is to model changes in ETC-related precipitation in the Baltic Sea area by the end of 21st century. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble output, the IPCC proposed RCP8.5 future scenario, and two hindcasted ETCs (Jan 2005, Nov 2008), we study these storms in projected future (i.e. "surrogate") conditions. The results showed up to 20-30% increase in precipitation; the spatial shifts and variability within the modeling domains were still substantial.

Original languageEnglish
Pages7590-7593
Number of pages4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019
Event39th IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS 2019 - Yokohama, Japan
Duration: 2019 Jul 282019 Aug 2

Conference

Conference39th IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, IGARSS 2019
Country/TerritoryJapan
CityYokohama
Period19/7/2819/8/2

Keywords

  • Baltic Sea
  • Floods
  • Global warming
  • Pseudo-climate modeling
  • Storms

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science Applications
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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