Optimal containment of epidemics over temporal activity-driven networks

Masaki Ogura, Victor M. Preciado, Naoki Masuda

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper, we study the dynamics of epidemic processes taking place in temporal and adaptive networks. Building on the activity-driven network model, we propose an adaptive model of epidemic processes, where the network topology dynamically changes due to both exogenous factors independent of the epidemic dynamics, as well as endogenous preventive measures adopted by individuals in response to the state of the infection. A direct analysis of the epidemic dynamics using Markov processes involves the eigenvalues of a transition probability matrix whose size grows exponentially with the number of nodes. To overcome this computational challenge, we derive an upper-bound on the decay ratio of the number of infected nodes in terms of the eigenvalues of a 2 × 2 matrix. Using this upper bound, we propose an efficient algorithm to tune the parameters describing the endogenous preventive measures in order to contain epidemics over time. We validate our theoretical results via numerical simulations.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)986-1006
Number of pages21
JournalSIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics
Volume79
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Adaptive networks
  • Convex optimization
  • Epidemics
  • Stochastic processes
  • Temporal networks

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Applied Mathematics

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