Possibility forecasting of voltage deviations based on Fuzzy-neuro Autoregressive model

Tetsuya Utsumi, Junjiro Sugimoto, Ryuichi Yokoyama, Takahide Niimura

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    Abstract

    This paper presents possibility of voltage deviations based on Fuzzy-neuro Autoregressive model. Under the situation that deregulation and the liberalization advance to, it becomes difficult to predict an electricity demand precisely. Furthermore, it is concerned about voltage deviation due to increase of electricity demand deviation. Therefore, in this paper, the power demand of next day is predicted using neural network from data observed constant periods in the past. In the next, the uncertainly of predicted power demand is showed using fuzzy model. Therefore, it enables to predict not only one power demand but also both upper and lower appearance probability by this proposal method. Then, the optimal power flow calculation is solved to predict the voltage deviation possibility. Moreover, in this paper voltage setting is done by arranging the voltage control equipment based on the requested voltage possibility forecast value.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings of the Eighth IASTED International Conference on Intelligent Systems and Control, ISC 2005
    EditorsM.H. Hamza
    Pages222-227
    Number of pages6
    Publication statusPublished - 2005
    EventEighth IASTED International Conference on Intelligent Systems and Control, ISC 2005 - Cambridge, MA
    Duration: 2005 Oct 312005 Nov 2

    Other

    OtherEighth IASTED International Conference on Intelligent Systems and Control, ISC 2005
    CityCambridge, MA
    Period05/10/3105/11/2

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    Keywords

    • Autoregressive model
    • Fuzzy
    • Neural network
    • Optimal power flow
    • Possibility forecasting
    • Voltage deviation

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Engineering(all)

    Cite this

    Utsumi, T., Sugimoto, J., Yokoyama, R., & Niimura, T. (2005). Possibility forecasting of voltage deviations based on Fuzzy-neuro Autoregressive model. In M. H. Hamza (Ed.), Proceedings of the Eighth IASTED International Conference on Intelligent Systems and Control, ISC 2005 (pp. 222-227)