Predictability of Conversation Partners

Taro Takaguchi*, Mitsuhiro Nakamura, Nobuo Sato, Kazuo Yano, Naoki Masuda

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

59 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information-theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cellphone locations, [C. Song et al., Science 327, 1018 (2010)] found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one's conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one's next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between sensor nodes in close proximity. We find that the conversation events are predictable to a certain extent; knowing the current partner decreases the uncertainty about the next partner by 28.4% on average. Much of the predictability is explained by longtailed distributions of interevent intervals. However, a predictability also exists in the data, apart from the contribution of their long-tailed nature. In addition, an individual's predictability is correlated with the position of the individual in the static social network derived from the data. Individuals confined in a community-in the sense of an abundance of surrounding triangles-tend to have low predictability, and those bridging different communities tend to have high predictability.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-16
Number of pages16
JournalPhysical Review X
Volume1
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Complex Systems
  • Interdisciplinary Physics
  • Statistical Physics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Predictability of Conversation Partners'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this