Predicting time range of development based on generalized software reliability model

Kiyoshi Honda, Hidenori Nakai, Hironori Washizaki, Yoshiaki Fukazawa, Ken Asoh, Kazuyoshi Takahashi, Kentarou Ogawa, Maki Mori, Takashi Hino, Yosuke Hayakawa, Yasuyuki Tanaka, Shinichi Yamada, Daisuke Miyazaki

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Development environments have changed drastically, development periods are shorter than ever and the number of team members has increased. These changes have led to difficulties in controlling the development activities and predicting when the development will end. Especially, quality managers try to control software reliability and project managers try to estimate the end of development for planing developing term and distribute the manpower to other developments. In order to assess recent software developments, we propose a generalized software reliability model (GSRM) based on a stochastic process, and simulate developments that include uncertainties and dynamics. We also compare our simulation results to those of other software reliability models. Using the values of uncertainties and dynamics obtained from GSRM, we can evaluate the developments in a quantitative manner. Additionally, we use equations to define the uncertainty regarding the time required to complete a development, and predict whether or not a development will be completed on time. We compare GSRM with an existing model using two old actual datasets and one new actual dataset which we collected, and show that the approximation curve generated by GSRM is about 12% more precise than that generated by the existing model. Furthermore, GSRM can narrow down the predicted time range in which a development will end to less than 40% of that obtained by the existing model.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference, APSEC
PublisherIEEE Computer Society
Pages351-358
Number of pages8
Volume1
ISBN (Print)9781479974252
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Event21st Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference, APSEC 2014 - Jeju Island, Korea, Republic of
Duration: 2014 Dec 12014 Dec 4

Other

Other21st Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference, APSEC 2014
CountryKorea, Republic of
CityJeju Island
Period14/12/114/12/4

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software

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  • Cite this

    Honda, K., Nakai, H., Washizaki, H., Fukazawa, Y., Asoh, K., Takahashi, K., Ogawa, K., Mori, M., Hino, T., Hayakawa, Y., Tanaka, Y., Yamada, S., & Miyazaki, D. (2014). Predicting time range of development based on generalized software reliability model. In Proceedings - Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference, APSEC (Vol. 1, pp. 351-358). [7091330] IEEE Computer Society. https://doi.org/10.1109/APSEC.2014.59