Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling

Nao Kumekawa, Hayato Honma, Shinji Wakao

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    2 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The Output of photovoltaic (PV) systems depends on weather conditions. Therefore if there is a large introduction of PV systems, the power quality in the distribution system will be affected. One effective solution for this problem is to predict PV output. Although the need for prediction information for short period fluctuation is increasing, it is difficult to directly predict a steep fluctuation on the second time scale. For the prediction information of PV output, we propose the estimation of the prediction interval of the fluctuation widths on a 10 second scale. In this paper, we carry out the prediction by using the conventional method, with one-dimensional kernel density estimation, and the proposed method, with two-dimensional kernel density estimation. Then, we discuss the effectiveness of the proposed method based on several numerical indexes.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publication2016 IEEE 43rd Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2016
    PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
    Pages1825-1830
    Number of pages6
    Volume2016-November
    ISBN (Electronic)9781509027248
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2016 Nov 18
    Event43rd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2016 - Portland, United States
    Duration: 2016 Jun 52016 Jun 10

    Other

    Other43rd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2016
    CountryUnited States
    CityPortland
    Period16/6/516/6/10

    Fingerprint

    Power quality

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Control and Systems Engineering
    • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
    • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

    Cite this

    Kumekawa, N., Honma, H., & Wakao, S. (2016). Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling. In 2016 IEEE 43rd Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2016 (Vol. 2016-November, pp. 1825-1830). [7749937] Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2016.7749937

    Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling. / Kumekawa, Nao; Honma, Hayato; Wakao, Shinji.

    2016 IEEE 43rd Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2016. Vol. 2016-November Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2016. p. 1825-1830 7749937.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    Kumekawa, N, Honma, H & Wakao, S 2016, Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling. in 2016 IEEE 43rd Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2016. vol. 2016-November, 7749937, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., pp. 1825-1830, 43rd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2016, Portland, United States, 16/6/5. https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2016.7749937
    Kumekawa N, Honma H, Wakao S. Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling. In 2016 IEEE 43rd Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2016. Vol. 2016-November. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. 2016. p. 1825-1830. 7749937 https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2016.7749937
    Kumekawa, Nao ; Honma, Hayato ; Wakao, Shinji. / Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling. 2016 IEEE 43rd Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2016. Vol. 2016-November Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2016. pp. 1825-1830
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