Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling

Nao Kumekawa, Hayato Honma, Shinji Wakao

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    Abstract

    The Output of photovoltaic (PV) systems depends on weather conditions. Therefore if there is a large introduction of PV systems, the power quality in the distribution system will be affected. One effective solution for this problem is to predict PV output. Although the need for prediction information for short period fluctuation is increasing, it is difficult to directly predict a steep fluctuation on the second time scale. For the prediction information of PV output, we propose the estimation of the prediction interval of the fluctuation widths on a 10 second scale. In this paper, we carry out the prediction by using the conventional method, with one-dimensional kernel density estimation, and the proposed method, with two-dimensional kernel density estimation. Then, we discuss the effectiveness of the proposed method based on several numerical indexes.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publication2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017
    PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
    Pages1-6
    Number of pages6
    ISBN (Electronic)9781509056057
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2018 May 25
    Event44th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017 - Washington, United States
    Duration: 2017 Jun 252017 Jun 30

    Other

    Other44th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017
    CountryUnited States
    CityWashington
    Period17/6/2517/6/30

    Fingerprint

    Power quality

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
    • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
    • Electronic, Optical and Magnetic Materials

    Cite this

    Kumekawa, N., Honma, H., & Wakao, S. (2018). Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling. In 2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017 (pp. 1-6). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2017.8366397

    Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling. / Kumekawa, Nao; Honma, Hayato; Wakao, Shinji.

    2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2018. p. 1-6.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

    Kumekawa, N, Honma, H & Wakao, S 2018, Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling. in 2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., pp. 1-6, 44th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017, Washington, United States, 17/6/25. https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2017.8366397
    Kumekawa N, Honma H, Wakao S. Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling. In 2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. 2018. p. 1-6 https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2017.8366397
    Kumekawa, Nao ; Honma, Hayato ; Wakao, Shinji. / Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling. 2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2018. pp. 1-6
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