Preliminary Analysis of Short-term Solar Irradiance Forecasting by using Total-sky Imager and Convolutional Neural Network

Anto Ryu, Masakazu Ito, Hideo Ishii, Yasuhiro Hayashi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The installation of photovoltaic system (PV) is increasing rapidly across the world. However, the fluctuation of PV output causes serious challenges in the power grid operation. Among the fluctuation, a quick part of fluctuation is mainly caused by the change of cloud coverage. A total-sky imager (TSI), measuring device to take sky and cloud, could be useful for short-term solar irradiance forecasting. In this paper, a convolutional neural network (CNN) is applied to forecasting model (called CNN model) to forecast 5-20 min ahead of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) using total-sky images and lagged GHI. To verify the effectiveness of CNN, three forecasting models are compared. They are the persistence model, the CNN model using only total-sky images, and the CNN model using both total-sky images and lagged GHI. From the computation, the proposed CNN model using both total-sky images and lagged GHI performs root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 49-177W/m2, 93-146W/m2, 71-118W/m2 in sunny day, partly cloudy day and overcast day, respectively. From these results, the proposed method is shown to be suitable for short-term solar irradiance forecasting.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2019 IEEE PES GTD Grand International Conference and Exposition Asia, GTD Asia 2019
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages627-631
Number of pages5
ISBN (Electronic)9781538674345
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2019 May 15
Event2019 IEEE PES GTD Grand International Conference and Exposition Asia, GTD Asia 2019 - Bangkok, Thailand
Duration: 2019 Mar 192019 Mar 23

Publication series

Name2019 IEEE PES GTD Grand International Conference and Exposition Asia, GTD Asia 2019

Conference

Conference2019 IEEE PES GTD Grand International Conference and Exposition Asia, GTD Asia 2019
CountryThailand
CityBangkok
Period19/3/1919/3/23

Keywords

  • Convolutional neural network
  • short-term forecasting
  • Solar irradiance forecasting
  • total-sky imager

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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    Ryu, A., Ito, M., Ishii, H., & Hayashi, Y. (2019). Preliminary Analysis of Short-term Solar Irradiance Forecasting by using Total-sky Imager and Convolutional Neural Network. In 2019 IEEE PES GTD Grand International Conference and Exposition Asia, GTD Asia 2019 (pp. 627-631). [8715984] (2019 IEEE PES GTD Grand International Conference and Exposition Asia, GTD Asia 2019). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/GTDAsia.2019.8715984