Probable Effects of CO2 -induced Climatic Changes on the Net Primary Productivity of Terrestrial Natural Vegetation in Monsoon East Asia

Three climatic scenarios of doubled CO2 (GISS, GFDL, and UKMO) were used to simulate changes in the net primary productivity (NPP) of the natural vegetation of monsoon East Asia due to CO₂-doubling. These three scenarios and baseline climate data were treated to provide gridded data consisting of data nets of 1° × 1° meshes. The gridded data thus obtained were utilized together with the Chikugo model to assess NPP with baseline and CO₂-doubling climates. The potential total net production (TNPo) of East Asia was climatically evaluated as 154 × 108 t dry matter yr-1. The climatic changes induced by doubled CO₂ concentrations could lead to an increase in TNPo by 9 % to 15 %, depending on the climatic scenarios used. The estimated increase in TNPo would be limited by the gap between the shift speed of climatic zones and the migration speed of vegetation formations.