Proposal of a design support method for sustainability scenarios 1st report: Designing forecasting scenarios

Haruna Wada, Yusuke Kishita, Yuji Mizuno, Maki Hirosaki, Shinichi Fukushige, Yasushi Umeda

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Although there are many scenario description methods, computational support has not been provided for scenario design. This paper proposes a method for supporting design of forecasting scenarios. This method supports determining storylines, which are key assumptions of sub scenarios, and describing sub scenarios based on the causal network and storyline. As a case study for verifying feasibility of this method, we described a forecasting scenario about changes of automobile industry when electric vehicles are diffused. Results illustrate that the usage of causal networks effectively supports generating storylines. Also, describing scenario texts is supported by detailing causal networks and the storylines.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationGlocalized Solutions for Sustainability in Manufacturing - Proceedings of the 18th CIRP International Conference on Life Cycle Engineering
Pages189-194
Number of pages6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Event18th CIRP International Conference on Life Cycle Engineering: Glocalized Solutions for Sustainability in Manufacturing - Braunschweig, Germany
Duration: 2011 May 22011 May 4

Publication series

NameGlocalized Solutions for Sustainability in Manufacturing - Proceedings of the 18th CIRP International Conference on Life Cycle Engineering

Conference

Conference18th CIRP International Conference on Life Cycle Engineering: Glocalized Solutions for Sustainability in Manufacturing
CountryGermany
CityBraunschweig
Period11/5/211/5/4

Keywords

  • Forecasting scenario
  • Scenario design
  • Sustainability scenarios

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

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  • Cite this

    Wada, H., Kishita, Y., Mizuno, Y., Hirosaki, M., Fukushige, S., & Umeda, Y. (2011). Proposal of a design support method for sustainability scenarios 1st report: Designing forecasting scenarios. In Glocalized Solutions for Sustainability in Manufacturing - Proceedings of the 18th CIRP International Conference on Life Cycle Engineering (pp. 189-194). (Glocalized Solutions for Sustainability in Manufacturing - Proceedings of the 18th CIRP International Conference on Life Cycle Engineering). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19692-8-33