### Abstract

A reliability estimation method is proposed to estimate the limit state exceeding probability of existing structures considering observation data by Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (SMCS). Accuracy estimation is one of the important issues when MC approach is adopted. Specifically SMCS approach has a problem known as degeneracy. Effective sample size is introduced to estimate the accuracy of estimated limit state exceeding probabilities. Coefficient of variance of estimated probability is predicted based on the effective sample size ratio of the updated model. The proposed method is demonstrated through a numerical example of reliability analysis on deteriorating RC structures.

Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering |

Pages | 1231-1239 |

Number of pages | 9 |

Publication status | Published - 2011 Dec 1 |

Event | 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP - Zurich, Switzerland Duration: 2011 Aug 1 → 2011 Aug 4 |

### Publication series

Name | Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering |
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### Conference

Conference | 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP |
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Country | Switzerland |

City | Zurich |

Period | 11/8/1 → 11/8/4 |

### Fingerprint

### ASJC Scopus subject areas

- Civil and Structural Engineering
- Statistics and Probability

### Cite this

*Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering*(pp. 1231-1239). (Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering).