### Abstract

A reliability estimation method is proposed to estimate the limit state exceeding probability of existing structures considering observation data by Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (SMCS). Accuracy estimation is one of the important issues when MC approach is adopted. Specifically SMCS approach has a problem known as degeneracy. Effective sample size is introduced to estimate the accuracy of estimated limit state exceeding probabilities. Coefficient of variance of estimated probability is predicted based on the effective sample size ratio of the updated model. The proposed method is demonstrated through a numerical example of reliability analysis on deteriorating RC structures.

Original language | English |
---|---|

Title of host publication | Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering |

Pages | 1231-1239 |

Number of pages | 9 |

Publication status | Published - 2011 |

Externally published | Yes |

Event | 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP - Zurich Duration: 2011 Aug 1 → 2011 Aug 4 |

### Other

Other | 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP |
---|---|

City | Zurich |

Period | 11/8/1 → 11/8/4 |

### Fingerprint

### ASJC Scopus subject areas

- Civil and Structural Engineering
- Statistics and Probability

### Cite this

*Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering*(pp. 1231-1239)

**Reliability estimation of deteriorated RC-structures considering various observation data.** / Yoshida, Ikumasa; Akiyama, Mitsuyoshi.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

*Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering.*pp. 1231-1239, 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP, Zurich, 11/8/1.

}

TY - GEN

T1 - Reliability estimation of deteriorated RC-structures considering various observation data

AU - Yoshida, Ikumasa

AU - Akiyama, Mitsuyoshi

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - A reliability estimation method is proposed to estimate the limit state exceeding probability of existing structures considering observation data by Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (SMCS). Accuracy estimation is one of the important issues when MC approach is adopted. Specifically SMCS approach has a problem known as degeneracy. Effective sample size is introduced to estimate the accuracy of estimated limit state exceeding probabilities. Coefficient of variance of estimated probability is predicted based on the effective sample size ratio of the updated model. The proposed method is demonstrated through a numerical example of reliability analysis on deteriorating RC structures.

AB - A reliability estimation method is proposed to estimate the limit state exceeding probability of existing structures considering observation data by Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (SMCS). Accuracy estimation is one of the important issues when MC approach is adopted. Specifically SMCS approach has a problem known as degeneracy. Effective sample size is introduced to estimate the accuracy of estimated limit state exceeding probabilities. Coefficient of variance of estimated probability is predicted based on the effective sample size ratio of the updated model. The proposed method is demonstrated through a numerical example of reliability analysis on deteriorating RC structures.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84856755469&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84856755469&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Conference contribution

SN - 9780415669863

SP - 1231

EP - 1239

BT - Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering

ER -