Response of macro variables of emerging and developed oil importers to oil price movements

Farhad Taghi Zadeh Hesary, Naoyuki Yoshino, Majid Mohammadi Hossein Abadi, Rosa Farboudmanesh

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of crude oil price movements on two macro variables, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and consumer price index inflation rate, in the developed economies of the United States and Japan, and an emerging economy, the People's Republic of China (PRC). These countries were chosen for this research because they are the world's three largest oil consumers. The main objective of this study is to see whether these economies are still reactive to oil price movements. The results obtained suggest that the impact of oil price fluctuations on developed oil importers’ GDP growth is much lower than on the GDP growth of an emerging economy. The main reasons for this lie in fuel substitution (higher use of nuclear energy, gas, and renewables), a declining population (for Japan), the shale gas revolution (for the United States), and strategic oil stocks and government-mandated energy efficiency targets in developed economies. All of these factors make developed economies more resistant to oil shocks. On the other hand, the impact of oil price movements on the PRC's inflation rate was found to be milder than in the two developed countries that were examined. The main cause for this is that the PRC experiences a larger forward shift in its aggregate supply due to higher growth, which allows it to avoid a massive increase in price levels following oil price shocks.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)91-102
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of the Asia Pacific Economy
Volume21
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016 Jan 2
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

oil price
economy
oil
gross domestic product
Gross Domestic Product
inflation
Japan
consumer price
crude oil
price level
nuclear energy
China
price index
substitution
fluctuation
price
energy efficiency
supply
energy
efficiency

Keywords

  • developed economies
  • emerging economies
  • oil price fluctuations
  • oil shocks

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Development
  • Political Science and International Relations

Cite this

Response of macro variables of emerging and developed oil importers to oil price movements. / Taghi Zadeh Hesary, Farhad; Yoshino, Naoyuki; Mohammadi Hossein Abadi, Majid; Farboudmanesh, Rosa.

In: Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Vol. 21, No. 1, 02.01.2016, p. 91-102.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Taghi Zadeh Hesary, Farhad ; Yoshino, Naoyuki ; Mohammadi Hossein Abadi, Majid ; Farboudmanesh, Rosa. / Response of macro variables of emerging and developed oil importers to oil price movements. In: Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy. 2016 ; Vol. 21, No. 1. pp. 91-102.
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