Sequential Fish Catch Forecasting Using Bayesian State Space Models

Yuya Kokaki, Naohiro Tawara, Tetsunori Kobayashi, Kazuo Hashimoto, Tetsuji Ogawa

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A new state space model suitable for fixed shore net fishing is proposed and successfully applied to daily fish catch forecasting. Accurate prediction of daily fish catches makes it possible to support fishery workers with decision-making for efficient operations. For that purpose, the predictive model should be intuitive to the fishery workers and provide an estimate with a confidence. In the present paper, a fish catch forecasting method is developed using a state space model that emulates the process of fixed shore net fishing. In this method, the parameter estimation and prediction are sequentially performed using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. The experimental comparisons using actual fish catch data and public meteorological information demonstrated that the proposed forecasting system yielded significant reductions in predictive errors over the systems based on decision-trees and legacy state-space models.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2018 24th International Conference on Pattern Recognition, ICPR 2018
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages776-781
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781538637883
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018 Nov 26
Event24th International Conference on Pattern Recognition, ICPR 2018 - Beijing, China
Duration: 2018 Aug 202018 Aug 24

Publication series

NameProceedings - International Conference on Pattern Recognition
Volume2018-August
ISSN (Print)1051-4651

Other

Other24th International Conference on Pattern Recognition, ICPR 2018
Country/TerritoryChina
CityBeijing
Period18/8/2018/8/24

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition

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