Simulating the Impact of Long-Term Care Prevention Among Older Japanese People on Healthcare Costs From 2020 to 2040 Using System Dynamics Modeling

Nobuo Nishi, Nayu Ikeda, Takehiro Sugiyama, Kayo Kurotani, Motohiko Miyachi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Objectives: This study examined how healthcare costs might change by reducing long-term care needs among older Japanese people. Methods: A simulation model was constructed comprising two aging chains for independent and dependent people aged ≥65 years by sex. Changes in the base run from 2020 to 2040 were compared with those in two hypothetical scenarios: a 2% annual reduction in death rates (S1), and S1 plus a 2% annual reduction in the proportion of dependent people aged 65 years and in transition rates from the independent to dependent state for people aged ≥65 years (S2). Results: In the base run, the population increased by 13.0% for men and 11.3% for women, and the proportion of dependent people increased by 4.6% for men but decreased by 13.4% for women. The sum of medical and long-term care expenditure increased in the base run, S1, and S2 by 8.2, 27.4, and 16.4%, respectively, for men and women combined. Conclusions: Healthcare costs will increase as death rates fall, but the increase will be attenuated if the proportion of dependent people decreases.

Original languageEnglish
Article number592471
JournalFrontiers in Public Health
Volume8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020 Dec 14
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Japan
  • long-term care expenditure
  • medical expenditure
  • simulation model
  • system dynamics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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