Strategic Ambiguity with Probabilistic Voting

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


Political parties and candidates usually prefer making ambiguous promises. This study identifies the conditions under which candidates choose ambiguous promises in equilibrium, given convex utility functions of voters. The results show that in a deterministic model, no equilibrium exists when voters have convex utility functions. However, in a probabilistic voting model, candidates make ambiguous promises in equilibrium when (i) voters have convex utility functions, and (ii) the distribution of voters’ most preferred policies is polarized. JEL Classification: D71, D72.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Theoretical Politics
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 2019 Jan 1


  • Campaign platform
  • Elections
  • Polarization
  • Political ambiguity
  • Probabilistic voting
  • Public promise

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Sociology and Political Science

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