System analysis of the food supply and demand in China in the 21st century

H. Kawashima, K. Okamoto, Masayuki Yokosawa, M. A. Halablab, M. J. Bazin

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Economic, political, environmental and agricultural variables were incorporated into a model in order to predict food supply and demand in the 21st century. Market forces do not apply to agricultural products in domestic market and price is determined politically. Invisible hand are used in order to increase prices of agricultural products. Population, area of arable land and income in the agricultural sector are key factors which determine cereal prices. Scenario analysis using a numerical model was carried out to predict cereal prices in the People's Republic of China (PRC) in the 21st century. The analysis shows that cereal prices will increase in the PRC rapidly if the country continues it's high rate of economic growth. The Chinese government have announced that they will continue the policy of self-sufficiency for food, but importing cheap cereal from international markets would be attractive an option for providing low price food to the people living in cities.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Ecological Sciences
EditorsJ.L. Uso, C.A. Brebbia, H. Power
PublisherComputational Mechanics Publ
Pages13-24
Number of pages12
Volume1
Publication statusPublished - 1998
Externally publishedYes
EventProceedings of the 1997 1st International Conference on Ecosystems and Sustainable Development - Castle of Peniscola, Spain
Duration: 1997 Oct 141997 Oct 16

Other

OtherProceedings of the 1997 1st International Conference on Ecosystems and Sustainable Development
CityCastle of Peniscola, Spain
Period97/10/1497/10/16

Fingerprint

Food supply
Agricultural products
Systems analysis
Economics
Numerical models

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Engineering(all)

Cite this

Kawashima, H., Okamoto, K., Yokosawa, M., Halablab, M. A., & Bazin, M. J. (1998). System analysis of the food supply and demand in China in the 21st century. In J. L. Uso, C. A. Brebbia, & H. Power (Eds.), Advances in Ecological Sciences (Vol. 1, pp. 13-24). Computational Mechanics Publ.

System analysis of the food supply and demand in China in the 21st century. / Kawashima, H.; Okamoto, K.; Yokosawa, Masayuki; Halablab, M. A.; Bazin, M. J.

Advances in Ecological Sciences. ed. / J.L. Uso; C.A. Brebbia; H. Power. Vol. 1 Computational Mechanics Publ, 1998. p. 13-24.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Kawashima, H, Okamoto, K, Yokosawa, M, Halablab, MA & Bazin, MJ 1998, System analysis of the food supply and demand in China in the 21st century. in JL Uso, CA Brebbia & H Power (eds), Advances in Ecological Sciences. vol. 1, Computational Mechanics Publ, pp. 13-24, Proceedings of the 1997 1st International Conference on Ecosystems and Sustainable Development, Castle of Peniscola, Spain, 97/10/14.
Kawashima H, Okamoto K, Yokosawa M, Halablab MA, Bazin MJ. System analysis of the food supply and demand in China in the 21st century. In Uso JL, Brebbia CA, Power H, editors, Advances in Ecological Sciences. Vol. 1. Computational Mechanics Publ. 1998. p. 13-24
Kawashima, H. ; Okamoto, K. ; Yokosawa, Masayuki ; Halablab, M. A. ; Bazin, M. J. / System analysis of the food supply and demand in China in the 21st century. Advances in Ecological Sciences. editor / J.L. Uso ; C.A. Brebbia ; H. Power. Vol. 1 Computational Mechanics Publ, 1998. pp. 13-24
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