The aging population and future demand for emergency ambulances in Japan

Akihito Hagihara, Manabu Hasegawa, Yukako Hinohara, Takeru Abe, Midori Motoi

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    12 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Demand for emergency ambulances has been increasing in developmentally advanced countries, and in Japan demand has been increasing due to the aging population since 2008, when the total population began to decrease. However, we do not know how acceleration of the aging population relates to the demand for emergency ambulances. Thus, we estimated future demand for emergency ambulances in Japan. A regression with autocorrelated errors model was used to estimate future demand for emergency ambulance dispatches and emergency transports. In the estimation, data on emergency ambulance dispatches, emergency transports, and population data from 1963 to 2011, and an estimate of the population of Japan from 2012 to 2025 were used. The number of emergency ambulance dispatches has increased since 2008, and it is expected to continue to increase until around 2023 or 2024, when it will reach a peak of ~6.2 million per year. Similarly, the number of emergency transports is expected to continue to increase until 2022 or 2023, when it will reach a peak of ~5.3 million per year. Although we need to be careful when evaluating numbers predicted for the remote future due to methodological limitations, the findings might be useful for updating emergency medical care systems to prepare for future increases in demand.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)431-437
    Number of pages7
    JournalInternal and Emergency Medicine
    Volume8
    Issue number5
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2013 Aug

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    Ambulances
    Japan
    Emergencies
    Population
    Emergency Medical Services

    Keywords

    • Ambulance

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Emergency Medicine
    • Internal Medicine

    Cite this

    The aging population and future demand for emergency ambulances in Japan. / Hagihara, Akihito; Hasegawa, Manabu; Hinohara, Yukako; Abe, Takeru; Motoi, Midori.

    In: Internal and Emergency Medicine, Vol. 8, No. 5, 08.2013, p. 431-437.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Hagihara, A, Hasegawa, M, Hinohara, Y, Abe, T & Motoi, M 2013, 'The aging population and future demand for emergency ambulances in Japan', Internal and Emergency Medicine, vol. 8, no. 5, pp. 431-437. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11739-013-0956-4
    Hagihara, Akihito ; Hasegawa, Manabu ; Hinohara, Yukako ; Abe, Takeru ; Motoi, Midori. / The aging population and future demand for emergency ambulances in Japan. In: Internal and Emergency Medicine. 2013 ; Vol. 8, No. 5. pp. 431-437.
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