The impact of alternative development strategies

Simulations with a dynamic input-output model

Yuji Kubo, Sherman Robinson, Shujiro Urata

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of two different development strategies: outward-looking strategy led by manufacturing exports and inward-looking strategy focused on import substitution strategy. Our approach is to do counterfactual experiments with a dynamic input-output model in order to explore the impact of the different strategy on economic performance. We apply the model to two different countries (Turkey and Korea), which exemplify the two strategies, and explore the impact in each case of a switching strategy. We impose an export-led strategy on Turkey and inward-looking strategy on Korea. Our results confirm the view that export-led strategy leads to better economic performance. However, we also find that there are risks associated with this choice. An export-led strategy requires high level of foreign capital inflows in the early phase, to be paid back later as export levels rise. The strategy also requires a high level of factor productivity growth. If export growth is not maintained, the country will be left with a dangerous level of foreign debt. If high productivity growth is not achieved, the growth in factor inputs (particularly investment) required to achieve adequate growth of manufacturing is not sustainable. Finally, our results indicate that the dynamic input-output model provides a good framework for exploring the structural implications of a choice of development strategy.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)503-529
Number of pages27
JournalJournal of Policy Modeling
Volume8
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1986

Fingerprint

Input-output model
Simulation
Development strategy
Factors
Productivity growth
Turkey
Korea
Manufacturing
Economic performance
Export growth
Foreign debt
Foreign capital
Experiment
Import substitution
Capital inflows

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

The impact of alternative development strategies : Simulations with a dynamic input-output model. / Kubo, Yuji; Robinson, Sherman; Urata, Shujiro.

In: Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 8, No. 4, 1986, p. 503-529.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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