TY - JOUR
T1 - The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains
T2 - The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19
AU - Inoue, Hiroyasu
AU - Todo, Yasuyuki
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright: © 2020 Inoue, Todo. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
PY - 2020/9
Y1 - 2020/9
N2 - This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of such a lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of supply and demand shortages. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo if production activities that are not essential to citizens’ survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that if Tokyo were locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan or 5.2% of the country’s annual GDP. Although the production that would be shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in an 86% reduction of the daily production in Japan after one month.
AB - This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of such a lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of supply and demand shortages. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo if production activities that are not essential to citizens’ survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that if Tokyo were locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan or 5.2% of the country’s annual GDP. Although the production that would be shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in an 86% reduction of the daily production in Japan after one month.
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U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0239251
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0239251
M3 - Article
C2 - 32931506
AN - SCOPUS:85091054301
VL - 15
JO - PLoS One
JF - PLoS One
SN - 1932-6203
IS - 9 September
M1 - e0239251
ER -