Why Does a Human Die? A Structural Approach to Cohort-Wise Mortality Prediction under Survival Energy Hypothesis

Yasutaka Shimizu, Yuki Minami, Ryunosuke Ito

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We propose a new approach to mortality prediction under survival energy hypothesis (SEH). We assume that a human is born with initial energy, which changes stochastically in time and the human dies when the energy vanishes. Then, the time of death is represented by the first hitting time of the survival energy (SE) process to zero. This study assumes that SE follows a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process and defines the mortality function, which is the first hitting time distribution function of the SE process. Although SEH is a fictitious construct, we illustrate that this assumption has the potential to yield a good parametric family of cumulative probability of death, and the parametric family yields surprisingly good predictions for future mortality rates.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)191-219
Number of pages29
JournalASTIN Bulletin
Volume51
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021 Jan

Keywords

  • Diffusion processes
  • Mortality prediction
  • Ruin theory
  • Survival energy hypothesis
  • The first passage time

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Accounting
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Why Does a Human Die? A Structural Approach to Cohort-Wise Mortality Prediction under Survival Energy Hypothesis'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this